How far are Seahawks from becoming a true contender? An insider’s view

The Seattle Seahawks took a step forward in Mike Macdonald’s first season at the helm.

2024 Seahawks Final Grades: Evaluating Year 1 of the Macdonald era

Sparked by a midseason turnaround on defense, the Seahawks won six of their final eight games to finish 10-7 and reach double-digit victories for the first time since 2020. It wasn’t enough to reach the playoffs, as Seattle became one of the rare 10-win teams to miss the postseason after losing out on an NFC West tiebreaker with the Los Angeles Rams. But the strong finish and defensive strides certainly inspired confidence that the franchise is trending in the right direction.

However, there’s clearly still a gap between the Seahawks and the league’s upper echelon. Seattle went just 2-5 against playoff teams, with those two victories coming against the Denver Broncos in rookie quarterback Bo Nix’s NFL debut and against a Rams team that was resting many of its starters in Week 18.

Just how far are the Seahawks from closing that gap and becoming a legitimate contender? The Athletic’s Derrik Klassen was asked that question Monday during an appearance on Seattle Sports’ Wyman and Bob.

“As far as them being a Super Bowl-caliber team, they’re probably still more than one offseason away,” Klassen said. “But I do think that they could do enough just this offseason alone to jump into actually being able to take the crown in the division again. I really think (they could do that) if they could fix the offensive line a little bit and improve with the offensive coordinator position.”

The Seahawks are already working toward finding a new offensive coordinator after relieving Ryan Grubb of his duties last week.

As for the O-line, that was once again a massive problem for Seattle. According to Pro Football Focus, the Seahawks ranked 24th in run block grading and 26th in pass block grading, which had a crippling effect on the entire offense. Quarterback Geno Smith faced one of the league’s highest pressure rates, while Seattle’s 28th-ranked rushing attack had little room to get untracked.

To help solve the issues up front, Klassen said the Seahawks should learn from the NFC South champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs surged from 20th in scoring offense in 2023 to fourth in 2024, in part due to offseason additions along the O-line. They signed left guard Ben Bredeson in free agency and drafted rookie center Graham Barton with their first-round pick.

Similar to Tampa Bay, Seattle’s O-line needs are at the interior spots.

“They should do a lot of what the Bucs did this past offseason,” Klassen said. “You go find your veteran free agent guard that’s an upgrade. You go and spend a pick on a center who really does a lot for you. I think if they could do something like that, that alone would kind of send them from this fringe nine or 10-win team to, ‘OK, maybe we can win 12.'”

Does that future include Geno?

Of course, the Seahawks’ path to Super Bowl contention depends significantly on what they decide to do at quarterback.

Smith is signed with Seattle through 2025, having inked a three-year, $75 million contract extension in March 2023. But the 34-year-old veteran quarterback’s deal doesn’t include any guaranteed money in 2025, which essentially places him and the franchise in a year-to-year relationship.

According to Over The Cap, Smith’s salary cap hit increases from $26.4 million this season to $44.5 million in 2025. That puts Seattle in a scenario where it likely needs to decide this offseason whether to extend Smith on a restructured deal or to cut ties and try to find a better option elsewhere in a limited QB market.

Would sticking with Smith for the next two or three years be a feasible path for a Seahawks team that’s looking to contend?

“I think so,” Klassen said. “I think that should be the window that this team is thinking with right now – like a three-year window. Because with Geno, if the arm were to fall off even 10 percent, I think it’s already at such a high level that that’s not a huge concern for me. So I think you would be totally fine in that sense in terms of how his game ages.”

Smith had a breakout first season as Seattle’s starting QB in 2022, when he led the league in completion rate and ranked seventh in ESPN’s QBR metric. His production dropped a bit in 2023, but he still was an above-average 14th in QBR.

This year has been more of a mixed bag. Smith finished fourth in passing yardage and fifth in completion rate, but threw the third-most interceptions and dropped to 21st in QBR.

However, it’s difficult to truly evaluate Smith’s season without factoring in the O-line issues. As Klassen pointed out, Smith’s best season in 2022 coincided with Seattle’s best pass protection of the past three years. The Seahawks ranked 20th in PFF pass block grading that season.

“I think he’s still a good player,” Klassen said. “I think with quarterbacks, people just get so hung up on the binary of: ‘Are they an elite top-five guy or are they not? And if we don’t have a top-five guy, then we need to make a change.’ And I think it’s fine that Geno is quarterback nine to 12 or 13 or whatever it is. I think that’s more than good enough, especially if they fix the offensive line.

“His first year when he started with the Seahawks, the offensive line wasn’t great. But it was OK, and that was enough for him to make it look good and to really attack down the field the way that he wants. It’s just (this) year in particular they were so, so bad, you couldn’t unlock the best part of his game.

“So again, if they could just fix the offensive line even a little bit, I think it would go a long way to us seeing the best of Geno again.”

Listen to the full conversation with The Athletic’s Derrik Klassen at this link or in the audio player near the top of this story. Tune in to Wyman and Bob weekdays from 2 to 6 p.m. or find the podcast on the Seattle Sports app.

More on the Seattle Seahawks

• Analyst: Why this is the year Seattle Seahawks invest in O-line
• Why former Seahawks DB thinks Seattle will move on from Geno and DK
• Huard: Free agent class has answers for Seattle Seahawks’ biggest need
• ESPN Insider: Two first-round TE draft targets for Seattle Seahawks
• Four Seattle Seahawks who took the biggest leap in 2024

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