SEATTLE MARINERS

Salk: How Mariners can realistically finish their roster this offseason

Jan 22, 2025, 6:45 PM

As the calendar clicks closer to pitchers and catchers reporting for duty, Seattle Mariners fans are wondering when the heck their team is going to replace its lost production at second, third and designated hitter, let alone how they improve on a season that saw them finish out of the playoff picture and a few games worse than the season before.

It’s a fair question.

Virtually every national voice that has weighed in has suggested that the team needs to add. And, frankly, that isn’t exactly a difficult thought exercise. The team has not only fallen short the past few years but now has removed contributors (albeit paltry ones) from three positions without finding suitable replacements. The starting rotation hasn’t changed, but assuming it will maintain its near impeccable health is a risk I sure wouldn’t want to take.

Why have they been so quiet? And why would a team that has a rotation like this fall short of adding the necessary bats to complement it?

The most commonly heard answer has been simple: they’re not spending the requisite money to acquire the talent they need.

Often in sports (as in life), Occam’s Razor applies to any and all questions – and it may be true in this case, too. If the answer is always the simplest explanation, then they may be unwilling (or unable) to spend enough money.

But I have always enjoyed viewing the sports world through the lens of the general managers and decision makers. And in this case, the baseball operations staff was given a budget this offseason and told to make the best of it. That budget may not be what any of us want it to be, but it exists, and it is up to that staff to make it work.

So, let’s ask again: Why have they been so quiet?

I can’t stop thinking about this Mariners offseason and how it may hint at an internal belief that they got it figured out at the end of last year. The theory goes that while their overall offensive numbers for the season were brutal, the team that finished the last month of the 2024 season third in baseball in OPS (on-base plus slugging) and second in WRC+ (weighted runs created) was the team they always could have been had they not been held back by the previous manager and hitting coaches. Essentially, under this theory, Dan Wilson and Edgar Martinez “fixed” the offense.

And there is some evidence to suggest that is true. In September, the Mariners struck out less, made more contact, hit more sacrifice flies, bunted more often, and were significantly better at driving in runs. If they can keep those things going, it should lead to some offensive improvement in 2025.

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Was the offense doing “Edgar things” over the last five weeks of last season the “real” offense? Again, that seems like a gamble to me. It requires a major extrapolation from a small sample size, and some real belief that hitting coaches (notoriously fleeting and irrelevant at the major league level) can make a significant and lasting difference.

It also requires a belief that one player – Victor Robles – will continue to hit at an MVP level. The great Luke Arkins of Mariners Consigliere points out that Robles’ numbers had an enormous effect on the team.

If the Mariners believe that their offensive problems stem from coaching rather than talent, it really shouldn’t come as a surprise that they haven’t dramatically improved their lineup. Personally, I think that is a mistake. So I set about trying to design a series of late offseason moves that could improve this roster.

In my scenario, they make three moves.

Finishing the Mariners’ offseason

1. Trade Luis Castillo to the Blue Jays for Bo Bichette. There is some major risk here as Bichette is coming off an awful season and has just one year remaining before free agency, but it would give the Mariners a potential impact infielder who plays the game hard, fits the profile of what I believe to be a “Dan Wilson player,” and costs about $6.5 million less than Castillo. Would Toronto do it? Who knows, but they missed out on Roki Sasaki, saw up close in the 2022 playoffs how good Castillo could be in their building, and aren’t likely to keep Bichette beyond this season anyway.

2. Sign Pete Alonso. With the Mets apparently moving on and the Blue Jays likely out, the market for Alonso isn’t strong. Some are suggesting that he now is in line for something akin to the deal Christian Walker got in Houston ($60 million over three years). Let’s assume the Mariners need to overpay to get Alonso to come here – would he take $70 million over three years with opt-outs?

3. Trade a Mitch. Neither Mitch Haniger nor Mitch Garver has much (if any) value, but if we have to fit a budget, you could try to package a Mitch along with a prospect or two (ouch) to clear enough salary to break even.

Assuming the reports were accurate that the Mariners’ offseason budget for this season is $15 million, the team has about $12 million left after signing veteran infielder Donovan Solano last week. In my scenario, it would increase to $18.5 million after the Castillo trade. Alonso takes you over by about $5 million, so you’d need to clear at least that on a potential Mitch trade. Probably not impossible.

Those moves would give you a lineup that sure looks good on paper.

1. Bo Bichette, IF
2. Julio Rodríguez, CF
3. Randy Arozarena, LF
4. Pete Alonso, 1B
5. Cal Raleigh, C
6. Luke Raley, DH
7. Victor Robles, RF
8. J.P. Crawford, IF
9. Solano/Moore/Bliss/Rivas/Young, IF

While your rotation takes a hit in this scenario, it’s worth it to improve the offense so significantly. Plus, Emerson Hancock appears to be a serviceable fifth starter and the team has multiple prospects in Double-A nearly ready for the majors (think Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo in 2023).

Seattle Mariners have the most prospects in Baseball America’s Top 100

Maybe those moves are a pipe dream. After all, it takes two parties to agree to any deal and just wanting it to happen isn’t enough. But I put this out there to show that there are ways to improve without necessarily spending more money (although that way would sure be simpler).

Here is the only other positive I can glean from what the Mariners have (not) done: they haven’t wasted money on bad players. That has been almost as big a problem recently as the lack of spending. Here is how I think it might be working.

• 1. The budget won’t allow them to sign big names to large, long-term deals.

• 2. The Mariners try to use the budget they do have to sign players to short deals.

• 3. Those players are done. Or bad. Or both.

• 4. They have to play those players until they run out of chances because they have track records and cost money.

I’d rather they have young options than the declining Kolten Wong, AJ Pollock or Jorge Polanco types. At least young players can be optioned to the minors and don’t require a long period of waiting for them to get back to their career norms, and their lack of cost leaves opportunities for acquisition later.

It’s hard to generate new enthusiasm for a team that hasn’t provided new characters. And it’s worth noting that teams like the Dodgers and Mets, who had extremely successful offensive seasons, still found themselves seeking ways to improve. This is just my attempt to understand what I don’t necessarily approve of, and to offer a suggestion for how this offseason could end. In the meantime, the days go by and we all wait.

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