Barnwell: The path the Seahawks should take with Geno Smith

Jan 19, 2025, 1:49 PM

Seattle Sports

As the Seattle Seahawks enter the offseason, Geno Smith’s future will continue to be the biggest storyline surrounding the franchise.

Which Seahawks could be salary cap casualties this offseason?

Smith is signed with Seattle through 2025, having inked a three-year, $75 million contract extension in March 2023. But given the 34-year-old veteran quarterback’s rising salary cap hit and his reported desire for a new deal, it’s unlikely either side would want Smith to play out the 2025 season on his current contract.

According to Over The Cap, Smith’s salary cap hit jumps from $26.4 million in 2024 to $44.5 million in 2025. As it currently stands, that would put the Seahawks a projected $27.4 million over the cap in 2025 – more than just two others teams.

From Smith’s perspective, he would appear to be eyeing an extension that places him more in line with the skyrocketing quarterback market, as his current $25 million-per-year average ranks just 19th among QBs. Fifteen quarterbacks have contracts worth at least $40 million per year – including nine QBs at $50 million per year.

That essentially leaves the Seahawks with two realistic options. They could sign Smith to an extension on a restructured deal that reduces his 2025 cap hit. Or they could either trade or release Smith, which would clear $31 million in cap space, according to OTC.

Which path should the Seahawks take? ESPN’s Bill Barnwell delved into that topic during an appearance on Seattle Sports’ Bump and Stacy last week.

“I think you could make a case for any argument,” Barnwell said. “… Maybe that means a cheaper quarterback. Maybe that means using the money elsewhere. Maybe it means extending Geno Smith. I think you could make a case for all these different things.”

‘There’s not really a better alternative’

Smith had a breakout first season as Seattle’s starting QB in 2022, when he led the league in completion rate and ranked seventh in ESPN’s QBR metric. His production dropped a bit in 2023, but he still was an above-average 14th in QBR.

This year has been more of a mixed bag. Smith finished fourth in passing yardage and fifth in completion rate, but threw the third-most interceptions and dropped to 21st in QBR.

However, it’s difficult to truly evaluate Smith’s season without factoring in Seattle’s continued struggles along the offensive line. According to Pro Football Focus, Smith faced the third-highest pressure rate out of 33 qualified quarterbacks this season. He faced the seventh-highest rate in 2023 and the 13th-highest in 2022.

“I would say in terms of his accuracy, in terms of his intelligence, in terms of the way he operates on a week-to-week basis, I think Geno Smith is one of the 20 best quarterbacks in football,” Barnwell said. “He’s closer to the bottom than the top of that (top-20) list to me, but that’s still a pretty good quarterback.”

That begs the question: In this era, can a team contend for a Super Bowl with a quarterback of Smith’s caliber who is commanding a significant chunk of cap space? Or would the Seahawks be better served moving on from Smith and trying to strike gold with a cheaper option – either through the draft, free agency or a trade – who develops into their QB of the future?

Barnwell acknowledged that the latter of those two paths is enticing, given how difficult it is to build a roster around quarterbacks who are on second and third contracts. But considering the current QB market, Barnwell doesn’t think that’s a viable option.

This year’s quarterback draft class is particularly weak outside of projected top picks Shedeur Sanders and Cam Ward, who both will be off the board long before the Seahawks are slated to draft at No. 18 overall. And Barnwell doesn’t think any current NFL QBs who could be available on the market via free agency or trade – such as Minnesota’s Sam Darnold or Atlanta’s Kirk Cousins – would put Seattle in a better situation that it currently has with Smith.

“I think if you had the path to a quarterback in the draft, I’d be more likely to move on from Geno Smith,” Barnwell said. “I’d be more likely to take a shot on a different roster-building philosophy. But as it stands, I feel like there’s not really a better alternative out there. You don’t have a path to a top-five quarterback, obviously. And I don’t think you have a path to a much cheaper, effective option.

“So I really think it’s a product of what’s available to you. And I think given those options, Geno Smith is pretty good.”

A flexible, team-friendly extension?

Smith is due a $16 million roster bonus on March 16, which makes that an unofficial deadline of sorts for the Seahawks to reach a decision on his future.

Given the lack of other options, Barnwell thinks Seattle’s best course of action would be signing Smith to an extension. As Barnwell explained, there are ways the Seahawks could restructure the extension to both reduce Smith’s cap hit and give the franchise flexibility to move on from Smith after 2025. Smith’s current three-year deal offered a similar sort of year-to-year flexibility for the Seahawks, with no fully guaranteed money beyond the 2022 season.

“To me, I think what you would do is extend Geno Smith, but maybe it’s more a restructure than an extension,” Barnwell said. “Maybe it’s, ‘Hey, we’re gonna guarantee you the actual cash you’re gonna make next year. We’re gonna restructure the deal, add some void years to the end of it to reduce the cap hit right now (and) give us a little more flexibility up front. And maybe we have a deal that triggers next year if you play well this year.’

“That would kind of put the decision off, but have something in place so if you do like what Geno Smith shows you in 2025, you have the ability to keep him around. But if you don’t like it, you still have the flexibility to move on, and you have a reduced cap hit in 2025.”

Listen to the full conversation with ESPN’s Bill Barnwell at this link or in the audio player near the top of this story. Tune in to Bump and Stacy weekdays from 10 a.m. to 2 p.m. or find the podcast on the Seattle Sports app.