ESPN’s Kurkjian breaks down Mariners’ path to the playoffs

The Seattle Mariners finished with an 85-77 record in 2024, marking their fourth straight season with at least that many wins.

Unfortunately for the M’s, they missed the playoffs for the third time in those four years.

What projections say about the 2025 Seattle Mariners

The Mariners have been good but not great, and that hasn’t been enough in the AL West. Not with the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers around.

Perhaps Seattle’s fortunes will change in 2025, but longtime ESPN MLB analyst Tim Kurkjian doesn’t see the division making things easier on the M’s this year.

“I think if the Mariners are going to make the playoffs, they’re going to have to beat two teams to get there,” Kurkjian said in a recent conversation with Seattle Sports’ Bump and Stacy.

The Astros are the defending AL West champs four years running, and they’ve taken the division crown in every year but one since 2017 and hoisted the World Series trophy twice in that span. The Rangers, meanwhile, made a dramatic run to win the World Series in 2023 as a wild card team, though they fell back to earth with a 78-84 record in 2024.

While the Astros’ roster has undergone significant changes for the second straight offseason, Kurkjian is far from writing them off this year.

“I still think the Astros are the Astros, and they’re going to be good again. I would make them the favorite to win the division again,” he said.

As for the Rangers, Kurkjian thinks 2024 will end up being an outlier.

“I just refuse to believe that the Rangers’ ’23 season – the world champion Rangers – was any sort of mirage, because it wasn’t,” he said. “Last year, they got completely crushed by injuries, and all those good hitters were either hurt or didn’t perform up to expectations. I fully expect that to change. … I think the Rangers are in for a major rebound season from last year.”

What will get M’s back to postseason

OK, so it’s clear the path to the playoffs isn’t getting any easier for the Mariners. So what’s it going to take to get there?

Kurkjian has a high opinion of the Mariners’ elite starting rotation, and says it will come down to Seattle’s two most recognizable players – outfielders Julio Rodríguez and Randy Arozarena – playing to their full potential.

More: Kurkjian expects Mariners ace to become MLB’s top pitcher

“If you make the playoffs with the starting pitching that the Mariners have now, then they are as dangerous as anyone in the postseason. The obvious thing is they have to get there, and they’re not going to get there unless Arozarena has a turnaround season, and unless Julio Rodríguez – who’s not a good player, he’s a great player – has a great season.

“We just have seen too much erratic play from (Rodríguez) the last couple years. … Even last year, I know when I saw the Mariners a couple times, they told me that that Julio was late on everything. When you’re late to the fastball and you’re this young and this big and this strong, that’s an issue. He’s going to get it fixed, he’s going to have a great season, I am certain of that. But to me, the Mariners, if they’re going to make the playoffs, those two outfielders specifically – Arozarena and Julio Rodríguez – have to be at their very best.”

You can hear the full Bump and Stacy conversation with ESPN MLB analyst Tim Kurkjian in the podcast at this link or in the player near the top of this post. Catch Bump and Stacy weekdays from 10 a.m. to 2 p.m. on Seattle Sports.

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• GM Hollander: How Seattle Mariners want to improve offense this year

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