What projections say about the 2025 Mariners

Feb 9, 2025, 9:58 AM | Updated: 10:05 am

Seattle Sports

The start of the regular season is still over six weeks away for the Seattle Mariners, but projection season is already upon us.

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Here’s a look at what FanGraphs’ popular ZiPS projections and others are saying about the M’s.

• The M’s most valuable pitcher: It’s a close race, but George Kirby edged out Logan Gilbert with a projected 3.7 fWAR (10th in MLB), just 0.2 wins above Gilbert’s projection. Kirby, an All-Star in 2023, has posted an ERA of 3.53 or lower in all three of his MLB seasons. The right-hander took a small step back in most categories in 2024, but he remained baseball’s most effective pitcher at limiting walks with a league-best 1.1 walks per nine innings.

Here are the ZiPS projections for Kirby: 13-9 record, 3.32 ERA, 173 1/3 innings, 162 strikeouts, 25 walks

To no surprise, the remaining members of the rotation are each projected for strong seasons. ZiPS has all five Mariners starters posting an ERA of 3.63 or better and at least 2.0 fWAR.

• One of baseball’s best duos: The Mariners are one of just four teams with two players in the top 15 for projected fWAR projections, with outfielder Julio Rodríguez checking in at seventh (5.8) and catcher Cal Raleigh 11th (5.3).

Rodríguez’s 2024 was a disappointment for the most part. The star center fielder struggled for much of the season before salvaging the back of his baseball card with a strong final month. Rodríguez was still second on the team fWAR at 3.8, but it was a full 2.0 wins behind what he did in each of his first two seasons. ZiPS projects the 24-year-old outfielder to regain the form he showed his first two seasons in 2025.

Here are Rodríguez’s 2025 projections: .281/.338/.469, 27 doubles, two triples, 27 home runs, 91 RBIs, 27 stolen bases, 135 wRC+

Raleigh is coming off back-to-back 30-homer seasons and has hit more home runs (94) through his first four years than any catcher in MLB history. San Francisco Giants catcher Patrick Bailey is the only player projected to bring more defensive value than Raleigh, who was last year’s American League Platinum Glove winner.

Here are Raleigh’s 2025 projections: .230/.310/.461, 22 doubles, one triple, 28 home runs, 65 RBIs, three stolen bases, 123 wRC+

• The best bounceback candidate: The Mariners’ offense will be relying on a number of players to bounce back from down years in 2024. Among the candidates, shortstop J.P. Crawford is who ZiPS likes the most. After a career year in 2023, Crawford got off to a slow start last season, never found his footing and also missed about two months with injuries. He ended the season with a career-low .202 average, .304 on-base percentage and .625 OPS. ZiPS doesn’t have Crawford reaching the same level of offensive production as he did two seasons ago, but rather something more similar to the 2021 and 2022 versions of the former Gold Glove winner.

Here are Crawford’s 2025 projections: .242/.336/.367, 27 doubles, one triple, 12 home runs, 56 RBIs, four stolen bases, 111 wRC+

• The idea becomes a reality: The Mariners had rather good luck when it came to the health of their starting rotation last season, but the same couldn’t be said for the bullpen. One of the arms the Mariners missed the most was hard-throwing right-hander Gregory Santos.

Santos, who was acquired in a trade last offseason to be a high-leverage reliever, missed most of the year with injuries and pitched just eight games. If he can stay healthy in 2025, he could end up being the most valuable member of Seattle’s bullpen. ZiPS projects Santos to have the highest fWAR (1.4) and ERA (2.56) among Mariners relievers. With Matt Brash and Troy Taylor both expected to miss time early as they recover from injuries, a healthy Santos will be especially important early on.

Here are Santos’ 2025 projections: 2-1 record, five saves, 2.56 ERA, 56 1/3 innings, 63 strikeouts, 16 walks

• M’s to be on playoff bubble again: Seattle is riding a franchise-best streak of four straight winning seasons. Unfortunately for the Mariners, the run has brought more heartache than joy. They have only one playoff appearance to show for it and three seasons where they missed the playoffs by two or fewer games. FanGraphs projects the Mariners to be on the playoff bubble once more in 2025, with the M’s slotted to be one of three 84-win wild card teams alongside the Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox. The good news? The Texas Rangers are projected to win the division with 85 wins. The bad? Six teams are slotted just two games or less behind Seattle.

The PECOTA standings projections from Baseball Prospectus have the Mariners in a similar spot. They’re projected to win 86.1 games, finish third in the division and take the third AL wild card spot. The Rangers top the division at 89.3 wins, followed by the Astros at 86.8. The PECOTA standings projections give the Mariners a 57.7% chance to make the playoffs, with a 24.4% chance to win the division and 33.3% odds to secure a wild card berth.