Salk: What will decide if Geno Smith returns with Seahawks in ’25

The Seattle Seahawks are home in January for the second straight season and third time in four years.

In 2021, it led to Russell Wilson being traded to Broncos. The 2023 failure ended Pete Carroll’s tenure in Seattle. What will be the fallout this time?

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To start, this feels different from the previous seasons. A new coach is instituting a new culture and deserves some leeway, especially after winning 10 games and showing tremendous improvement throughout the season. Last season’s commitment to John Schneider, coupled with a successful coaching hire and draft class, would seem to put the general manager on firm footing.

But the decision to part ways with offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb illustrates the frustration with that side of the ball. That may be the only major casualty, but it’s worth wondering if it is the first domino to fall.

That leads us directly to the quarterback position.

Geno Smith is entering the final year of his contract and is looking for a raise. His three-year tenure as the starting quarterback has not led to a single playoff win. Furthermore, and more jarringly, those three seasons have seen a combined three coaches and offensive coordinators dismissed.

Geno’s future is, and should be, murky.

When asked after the season if Geno would be back for the next, coach Mike Macdonald was coy, answering that he had no reason to say no. A day later, he left the door cracked again by saying he wanted Geno back but that it wasn’t his call – that instead it is “a Seahawks decision.” Macdonald also mentioned that he wants his new offensive coordinator to have some say over his staff. Would he also want some input on who is in the quarterback room? Further, if the team does indeed look to run more often next season, does it need to spend more money on its starting quarterback?

As of today, I would bet that Geno is back for 2025. To move on from him would be an incredible risk that I don’t believe the organization is willing to take, especially after a 10-win season. But it’s worth noting that they moved on from a much more successful quarterback in 2010, even after Matt Hasselbeck led them to a playoff win and nearly a second.

If Geno does not return, I would think there would be four major contributing factors.

• 1. Interceptions.

Geno threw 15 interceptions this season, one fewer than league leaders Kirk Cousins and Baker Mayfield. The former was benched and the latter coupled it with 41 touchdowns, nearly doubling Geno’s total of 21. Those numbers simply don’t work in this era, especially for a coach looking to play a complementary style of offense that demands ball security.

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• 2. Red zone.

What’s worse, too may of those turnovers came in the red zone. If there is one thing we know about Macdonald, it’s that he puts a premium on what happens inside the 20-yard line. Whereas Pete Carroll spent an inordinate amount of time in training camp focused on two-minute offense/defense, Macdonald dedicated those precious minutes to the red zone. His quarterback squandered too many scoring opportunities either with interceptions or sacks that took the Seahawks out of scoring range. That was likely a factor in the decision to fire Grubb, but it could certainly play a role in the quarterback decision as well.

• 3. Leadership.

This is a tough one to judge from the outside. We simply don’t know what kind of a leader Geno is inside that locker room or on the field. We might hear rumblings, but nothing that would speak to the way he inspires teammates. But I will rely on former NFL quarterback Brock Huard when he points out that there are certain signal callers in the league that clearly have the respect, love and admiration of their teammates. He specifically points to Mayfield, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen as players who just go above and beyond in this area. You can see it when Jackson’s teammates interrupt post-game interviews to shower him with praise or when Allen’s offensive line buys him an MVP necklace. They seem to have something special that Geno does not appear to share.

• 4. Actual willingness to take a risk to get better.

This is the big one. Sticking with Geno is the safe thing to do. He is a good quarterback. Not perfect, but clearly good. He has a strong, accurate arm and good understanding of how to operate an NFL offense. He is athletic enough, has performed well in clutch situations, and has stayed healthy for the past three years.

Geno can absolutely get you into the playoffs. But, as previously mentioned, he has yet to win a playoff game here, and the clock is ticking as he enters his mid-30s. Bringing him back probably means the team wins at least nine games next season. That’s a strong floor. But what is the ceiling? Can he win 11? 12? 14? Can he take a team to the Super Bowl?

If your answer is “no,” then you are just delaying the inevitable. And, even worse, you are making it harder to find the next quarterback by finishing in the upper-middle of the pack, a dead zone for drafting franchise players. Moving on from Geno could lead to a step back – that is the risk associated with trying something else. But there is also risk inherent in paying more for an aging player and hoping he takes you farther than he ever has before.

There are options. The Hawks could attempt to trade for Minnesota’s J.J. McCarthy, knowing that he would likely had been the top pick if he was in this year’s draft class. They could attempt another reclamation project similar to what has worked for the Vikings and Sam Darnold. If they find their quarterback that way, great! If it backfires and they take a step back, wouldn’t they be in position to draft one in 2026 when the QB draft class is expected to be significantly better than this year?

Again, I would bet on Geno returning in 2025 for one last run with the team. To go in another direction is risky, not only because you could take a step back and find yourself in the same boat as so many others desperately seeking a legitimate starter but because it could send the wrong message to a team that is just starting to buy into its coach and his culture.

I would be willing to take that risk. Will the Seahawks?

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