Which M’s prospect has best shot to hit star potential? Law weighs in
Jan 31, 2025, 3:36 PM
The Seattle Mariners’ farm system has received plenty of accolades over the past year, but it may have just garnered its biggest endorsement yet.
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The Mariners hold the No. 1 spot in the MLB farm system rankings from The Athletic’s Keith Law that were released Thursday. It was a big year-over-year jump for Seattle, which was ranked 20th last season.
Shortstops Colt Emerson and Felnin Celesten lead the way for the M’s. Law has Emerson as the No. 5 prospect in all of baseball, while Celesten checks in at No. 24. Both have star potential, according to Law.
“They’re a little different, although they’re both shortstops,” Law said during a conversation with Seattle Sports’ Brock and Salk on Thursday. “I think they’re both gonna be stars, but in kind of different ways.”
The 19-year-old Emerson’s stock has risen greatly since he was selected No. 22 overall in the 2022 MLB Draft. The left-handed-hitting infielder is regarded as the top prospect in the Mariners’ organization by most, but no rankings have been quite as high on Emerson as Law’s.
Emerson missed over a month of time with Low-A Modesto last season after suffering broken bone in his foot, but he still slashed .293/.440/.427 with 15 extra-base hits, six stolen bases and more walks (35) than strikeouts (27) in 40 games with the Nuts.
Emerson made his way to High-A Everett in August at just 18 years old. There were some struggles in Northwest League, as he hit just .225/.331/.317 with seven extra-base hits and nine stolen bases in 29 games with the AquaSox.
But he bounced back in a big way during 13 games in the Arizona Fall League, slashing .370/.536/.537 with nine doubles and eight stolen bases.
“As I talked to scouts, as I talked to analysts, it is consistent – he can hit for average, hit for hard contact, probably not gonna be huge power,” Law said. “There’ll be more than enough power there, but there’s just so much confidence in the hit tool, with a chance, too, he stays at shortstop. He’s been better at shortstop in pro ball than I think anybody thought he was going to be when he was coming out of high school.”
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Celesten, also 19, is another player Law seems to be higher on than most. Baseball America has him at No. 89 overall and MLB Pipeline No. 74.
The switch-hitting Celesten was a prized international signing in 2023, ranked as the No. 2 international prospect in his class by Pipeline. Injuries have kept him off the field quite a bit since. He missed the 2023 season with a hamstring injury and had his 2024 season in the Arizona Complex League cut short due to season-ending surgery on his left hamate bone.
In 32 ACL games, Celesten produced an eye-popping .352/.431/.568 slash line with 17 extra-base hits and five stolen bases.
“He’s super young. (There’s) more risk, but I think actually a little bit more upside (than Emerson),” Law said. “There’s a chance for a 25-homer shortstop that is a true switch-hitter if he hits enough (and) makes enough contact to get to it. And I think he will, obviously, from the rankings.”
Between Emerson and Celesten, who has the best shot of reaching their sky-high potential?
“I feel a little bit better about Emerson getting to the star ceiling because he’s closer (to the big leagues), because we’ve got more data, we’ve got more scouting looks,” Law said. “But obviously I feel pretty good about Celesten, too.”
Listen the full conversation at this link or in the audio player near the top of this story. Tune in to Brock and Salk weekdays from 6-10 a.m. or find the podcast on the Seattle Sports app.
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