Rowland-Smith: Why J.P. Crawford is prime bounceback candidate

Mar 4, 2025, 4:42 PM

Seattle Sports

The Seattle Mariners had a number of hitters last season who performed significantly below their career track records. Among them were Mitch Garver, Mitch Haniger, Jorge Polanco and J.P. Crawford, who each struggled mightily.

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And with minimal additions to their lineup this offseason, the M’s are banking on bounceback seasons from at least some players in that group.

Who is most likely to rebound?

While filling in last week on Seattle Sports’ Wyman and Bob, MLB Network and Mariners analyst Ryan Rowland-Smith pointed to Garver as “the low-hanging fruit,” given what a drastic dip he took in 2024. But the name Rowland-Smith focused on the most was Crawford.

“Mitch Garver is the low-hanging fruit because he set the bar so low,” Rowland-Smith said. “He’ll be the first to tell you that. But the most crucial and the guy who I think is gonna bounce back and have the biggest impact is J.P.”

Crawford experienced a breakout 2023 campaign after spending that offseason revamping his swing at the renowned Driveline Baseball facility in Kent. The lefty-hitting shortstop hit .266 with a career-high 19 home runs and an .818 OPS that year, while posting a 133 OPS+ that ranked third among all regular MLB shortstops.

Last year was a much different story.

Crawford was hampered by a pair of injuries in 2024, missing 26 games with an oblique strain and another 31 games with a fractured hand after being hit by a pitch. His production plummeted, as he hit just .202 with nine homers, a .625 OPS and an 86 OPS+ in 105 games.

But with a return to health, Rowland-Smith is confident in a 2025 resurgence from the Mariners’ 30-year-old shortstop. His biggest reason for optimism? Rowland-Smith pointed to Crawford’s struggles against fastballs last season, which he thinks are an easier fix than other potential problems.

“I think when he was injured, things started to change,” Rowland-Smith said. “He went from having a 12.5% whiff on the fastball (in 2023), missing them very minimally, and that jumped (over) 18% (in 2024). And I think when all of a sudden that happened, that psychologically got in his head a little bit.”

J.P. vs. the fastball

According to Baseball Savant, Crawford batted just .214 against fastballs last year. That was a major drop from his previous five seasons from the Mariners, when his fastball batting average ranged from .251 to .287.

Crawford also saw his fastball whiff rate skyrocket to 18.8%. Over his previous four seasons, it was between 11% and 12.5%.

Crawford batted .202 against breaking balls last year, which was actually a slight uptick from his .199 average in 2023. His batting average against offspeed pitches did plummet from .310 in 2023 to .136 in 2024, but offspeed pitches only made up 11.5% of the total pitches he saw last year. Fastballs made up 61.5% and breaking balls were 27%.

Rowland-Smith believes Crawford’s fastball struggles were the biggest culprit.

“That, to me, is an easier fix (than) if it was a situation where all of a sudden now they’re starting to pitch him differently and he’s starting to see a boatload of secondary pitches … and he couldn’t hit them,” Rowland-Smith said.

Rowland-Smith also thinks Crawford’s swing got a bit long at times last year, which he believes was due to the oblique injury.

“That oblique injury I think really sort of messed him up,” Rowland-Smith said. “And when you try to generate more power, you naturally get longer. … So I think if he’s healthy, he can handle that fastball and be a little quicker to that pitch.”

Listen to the full conversation with Ryan Rowland-Smith at this link or in the audio player near the top of this story. Tune in to Wyman and Bob weekdays from 2 to 6 p.m. or find the podcast on the Seattle Sports app.