Law: The long-term outlook for Mariners prospect Lazaro Montes

Lazaro Montes’ prodigious raw power has long been his calling card.

And recently, the highly touted Seattle Mariners outfield prospect is putting it on full display.

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Montes, a 6-foot-5 lefty-hitting slugger, ranks third in the minor leagues with 21 home runs this season. He hit 18 homers in 67 games at High-A Everett and has three through his first 12 games since being promoted to Double-A Arkansas – including a moonshot 475-foot blast.

Across both levels, Montes is slashing .270/.392/.577 with a .968 OPS. And he’s doing so despite being more than 2 years younger than the average High-A Northwest League hitter and more than 4 years younger than the average Double-A Texas League hitter.

As Montes tears up the minor leagues, what’s his major league potential? The Athletic’s Keith Law was posed that question last week on Seattle Sports’ Bump and Stacy.

Law thinks Montes ultimately projects as a full-time designated hitter, given the questions about his fielding. Ultimately, Law said Montes’ trajectory will hinge on his ability to keep his strikeout rate in check.

“The power is there, and he’s always had that power,” Law said. “When he came into (the minors at age 17), he was already plus power. The questions on him have been: Does he have a position at all? I still kind of lean toward probably not. He is probably going to be a DH in the long run. And how good is his approach at the plate? Is he going to hit enough to get to all of that power in games? That’s kind of varied.

“Early this season, he was struggling with contact, he was chasing stuff out of the zone again. He seems to have tightened that up. He’s been good in the (one) week he’s been in Double-A. I’d like to see that over a larger sample. The more that he controls the strike zone, the better the prospect that he is.”

During his time in Everett this season, Montes posted the ninth-best walk rate in the Northwest League at 15.9%, but also had the 10th-highest strikeout rate at 27.6%. Over a very small sample size in Arkansas, he has a 20% walk rate and a 23.6% strikeout rate.

“I’ve been very impressed by how much he’s made adjustments at the plate,” Law said. “As much as I kill the guy for his defense, or lack thereof, he does continue to show the ability to make adjustments at the plate, and that is what the best hitters do.”

Montes has long been compared to Houston Astros slugger and three-time All-Star Yordan Álvarez. Both have big-time power. Both have massive frames. And both have similar left-handed swings, having worked with the same hitting instructor from their native Cuba.

“People want to comp him to Yordan Alvarez, who really should never touch a glove again for the rest of his career,” Law said. “(But) maybe that’s Montes. That’s a pretty good outcome. If you told me he was even Yordan Alvarez lite, I would be thrilled with that outcome. And I do think that’s within reach.”

Listen to the full conversation with The Athletic’s Keith Law at this link or in the audio player at the bottom of this story. Tune in to Bump and Stacy weekdays from 10 a.m. to 2 p.m. or find the podcast on the Seattle Sports app.

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