Why Mariners are well-positioned to make big trade

The offense was a surprising catalyst for the Seattle Mariners’ strong start this season, but the production has tapered off over the past month.

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The club entered May first in the majors in walk rate (10.5%), third in home runs (45), third in on-base percentage (.339) and sixth in OPS (.754). It helped the M’s score the eighth-most runs in baseball (152) through the first five weeks of the season.

Those numbers have plummeted since May 1, especially when it comes to getting on base. The M’s are 21st in walk rate (7.7%), 11th in home runs (35), 28th in on-base percentage (.299) and 24th in OPS (.673) in the time since. They’re also 21st in runs scored (112) during that span.

With the trade deadline getting closer, it’s looking more like the offensive needs the Mariners’ came into the season with haven’t changed much.

The good news on that front? Seattle has plenty of firepower stockpiled for the deadline, which Yahoo Sports’ Jordan Shusterman told Seattle Sports’ Bump and Stacy on Wednesday is a reason he’s “cautiously optimistic” the club will make a big splash.

“I don’t know what it’s gonna look like. We’re still kind of waiting for those sellers to emerge,” Shusterman said. “I think they are going to want to be aggressive. I think they are going to be aggressive via trade.”

A reason to confidently deal from farm

Shusterman, like others who cover MLB, views Seattle’s stacked farm system as a big reason they’re in position to make an impactful trade. The Mariners have an MLB-high nine prospects in MLB Pipeline’s top 100. And they have a chance to add impact to that group quickly with the No. 3 pick and a compensatory round A selection in the upcoming draft.

Trading from a group of homegrown talent like the Mariners have can make for tough decisions. However, Shusterman believes what the organization has done developing prospects in recent years should make those decisions easier to make.

“Not just the fact that they’re picking high and are going to maybe have access to a top-level talent that they normally don’t when they’re a little bit lower down, it’s how many times they’ve hit on these guys,” Shusterman said. “Those hit rates kind of gives you the confidence that you can do it again, the feeling that we are going to draft another awesome class – some of whom are gonna maybe pop really fast as late-blooming college guys like Logan Evans or Ben Williamson and suddenly be in the big leagues, or high schoolers that can kind of surge in the lower minors and become top prospects in baseball.

“The Mariners have done that across the board at a lot of levels of the organization now.”

A division up for grabs

The M’s are 3-4 in their past seven series since running off a streak on nine series wins, yet they are still just one-half game behind the Houston Astros for first place in the AL West and led the division as recently as Tuesday. No other team in the division is above .500. Texas is struggling to hit. The Angels are, well, they’re the Angels. And the A’s have fallen off, losing 19 of their past 20 games.

The wide-open division is another reason Shusterman believes a big trade could be coming.

“Even though there are still some flaws with this team, this still appears to be as vulnerable of a division as they’ve really kind of come up against,” Shusterman said.“ And while I know Houston just passed them – I think picking Houston is still very reasonable because you pick Houston until you don’t – there is a window here to win the division for the first time in 2001, and I think the organization and the front (office) is going to act accordingly.”

Hear the full conversation at this link or in the audio player near the top of this story. Listen to Bump and Stacy weekdays from 10 a.m.-2 p.m. or find the podcast on the Seattle Sports app. 

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