Passan: What Mariners trade deadline push hinges on

The Seattle Mariners are putting themselves in position to actively pursue upgrades ahead of this summer’s trade deadline.

Sitting in first place in the AL West at 32-26, the M’s currently hold a 71.9% chance to make the playoffs, per FanGraphs. But the job won’t be finished until that number reads 100%, something that’s happened just one time in Seattle over the past 23 seasons.

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ESPN’s Jeff Passan had the Mariners at the top of his list of “acquirers” in an article previewing the trade deadline Tuesday, noting the Mariners “are going to be aggressive at this deadline, and they have the minor league capital to swing a deal for anyone.”

Passan specifically singled out Baltimore Orioles first baseman Ryan O’Hearn as the best possible trade target for the Mariners, which he detailed further during a conversation with Seattle Sports’ Brock and Salk.

During that conversation, co-host Mike Salk asked Passan about the possibility of dealing for Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Bryan Reynolds.

Reynolds, a two-time All-Star who is the third year of an eight-year, $106.5 million contract, could be an interesting candidate for the Mariners. He’s having a down season after earning his second All-Star nod in 2024, but has a solid track record with a 111 OPS+ or better in five of his six previous MLB campaigns.

“He would be a fit, but I just don’t know if he’s been productive enough to warrant the Mariners taking on the remainder of his contract,” Passan said. “… You might just be cutting off an even better move in the future.”

That question caused Passan to point out what he feels is the real determining factor for just how aggressive Seattle will be when the July 31 deadline approaches.

“How much do you invest in this team that doesn’t know what they’re going to be getting from George Kirby, doesn’t know what they’re going to be getting from Bryce Miller, at this point doesn’t know what they’re going to be getting from Logan Gilbert?” Passan asked.

Where things stand for starting rotation

Both Kirby and Miller have returned to the M’s rotation from the injured list. But neither have looked like the versions of themselves shown in past seasons.

Kirby, who is set to make his third start of the season Tuesday night against Baltimore, missed the first month and half with right shoulder inflammation. He has allowed 11 runs over just 8 2/3 innings in his two 2025 starts for an 11.42 ERA. The right-hander has posted an ERA of 3.53 or better in his three previous seasons.

Miller recently returned from a short IL stint due to right elbow inflammation, surrendering three runs over four innings Saturday against the Minnesota Twins in his first start back. The right-hander struggled before going on the IL, posting a 5.22 ERA while failing to reach six innings pitched in his first seven starts.

Gilbert is set to make his second rehab appearance with Triple-A Tacoma on Wednesday following an IL stint for a right elbow flexor strain that began in late April. The club will evaluate what’s next for Gilbert afterwards, per Seattle Sports M’s insider Shannon Drayer.

Logan Gilbert will be making his second rehab start tomorrow with the Rainiers. Dan Wilson said they will evaluate where they are in terms of what next after. Also, Trent Thornton threw 1.2 innings for Tacoma earlier today and said everything went great.

— Shannon Drayer (@shannondrayer) June 3, 2025

Luis Castillo and Bryan Woo have carried the load for the rotation early on, with both posting an ERA of 3.03 or lower. And Emerson Hancock and rookie Logan Evans have given the rotation a boost filling in for injured starters.

“Yeah, Luis Castillo has looked a lot better, and Bryan Woo is awesome and Emerson Hancock and Logan Evans are there,” Passan said. “But I think until they have a better sense of what their pitching staff really looks like in this present moment, that we can’t know just how aggressive the Mariners are going to be.”

Hear the full conversation at this link or in the audio player near the top of this story. Listen to Brock and Salk weekdays from 6-10 a.m. or find the podcast on the Seattle Sports app. 

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