Insider: A big question for 4 different top Mariners prospects
FanGraphs prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen details one key area to focus on for several of the Seattle Mariners' top prospects.
Watch: Is Julio Rodriguez the MOST IMPORTANT PLAYER in the AL? w/Jon Morosi | #SeattleSports #Mariners | 20 mins
With spring training underway, Seattle Mariners fans heading to Arizona have an up-close chance to watch the likes of Julio Rodríguez, Cal Raleigh, Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Andrés Muñoz and more.
Morosi: Why Julio is the most important player in the American League
They also have a chance to see a slew of talented hitters from one of the best farm systems in baseball.
The Mariners have seven prospects – all hitters – in Baseball America’s Top 100. That’s more than any other MLB franchise.
They also have seven prospects – all hitters – in MLB.com’s Top 100. That’s tied with the Chicago Cubs for the most.
For fans watching those prospects in Arizona, what should they be looking for? What areas of their games will determine how soon they can reach the big leagues?
Co-host Mike Salk posed those questions to FanGraphs prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen during a conversation Thursday on Seattle Sports’ Brock and Salk. Here’s insight from Longenhagen on the four prospects Salk asked about.
2B/SS Cole Young (age 21)
Young, the franchise’s second baseman of the future, is widely considered to be the closest of the Mariners’ top prospects to reaching the big leagues. He’s ranked No. 49 by MLB.com and No. 56 by Baseball America.
Since being drafted out of high school as a 2022 first-round pick, the left-handed-hitting Young has quickly risen through Seattle’s farm system while showcasing an advanced approach and overall hitting ability. He spent last season in Double-A Arkansas, slashing .271/.369/.390 with nine home runs and a .759 OPS in 124 games.
• Longenhagen’s one thing to watch: “How does his swing look, knowing that he had nagging wrist issues last year?”
SS/3B Colt Emerson (age 19)
Emerson, a 2023 first-round pick, is the Mariners’ top prospect. He’s ranked No. 16 by Baseball America and No. 20 by MLB.com, largely due to his smooth and polished left-handed swing.
Emerson’s full-season pro debut last year was hampered by a pair of injuries, which caused him to miss nearly two months. But when healthy, he showed plenty of potential. He hit .263/.393/.376 with a .769 OPS in 70 games between Low-A Modesto and High-A Everett, while displaying advanced plate discipline with nearly as many walks as strikeouts.
• Longenhagen’s one thing to watch: “How does he look on defense? The injury stuff I think played a factor last year. He was just heavy-footed, slow on defense. Did not think he could play shortstop at all based on the look on film last year. He can hit enough that I don’t care. Second base, third base, fine. But does that rebound coming off of injury?”
OF Lazaro Montes (age 20)
Montes, a 6-foot-3 power-hitting lefty slugger from Cuba, is ranked No. 42 by MLB.com and No. 97 by Baseball America. Last season, he hit .288/.397/.484 with 21 homers and an .881 OPS over 116 games between Low-A Modesto and High-A Everett.
• Longenhagen’s one thing to watch: “Can he cover those fastballs up and away from him? He’s a corner (outfield) bat who had a sub-70% contact rate in A-ball last year. The measurable raw power was not what you’d expect for a guy who hit 21 home runs. … They did a great job of cleaning up his body, but I’m just concerned that there’s not enough offense there to profile every day in a corner. So it’s those fastballs away from him.”
SS Felnin Celesten (age 19)
Celesten, a highly touted 2023 international signing from the Dominican Republic, is a switch-hitting shortstop with five-tool potential. He’s ranked No. 74 by MLB.com and No. 89 by Baseball America. However, he’s had a hard time staying on the field, with injuries limiting him to just 32 games over his first two pro seasons.
• Longenhagen’s one thing to watch: “Is he elevating the baseball more? That’s the one weird thing in the data from last year. He’s got like a two-degree average launch angle, and there’s just no big leaguer who has a launch angle that low. And I’m not like a big, ‘Oh my God, what’s his launch angle?’ guy. But it is weird when there’s no other big leaguer like that. And so obviously he was hurt too and it’s a small sample, so it’s less reliable. But what’s going on with that? Watching him in person plenty last year during extended spring and then in the complex before he was shut down, I think he’s fine. He’s very talented.”
Listen to the full conversation with FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen at this link or in the audio player near the top of this story. Tune in to Brock and Salk weekdays from 6 to 10 a.m. or find the podcast on the Seattle Sports app.
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