Have expectations changed for M’s Julio Rodríguez?

There wasn’t a whole lot of change for the Seattle Mariners during the offseason.

When players reported to spring training over the past week, it was many of the same faces who arrived at camp the same time last year. There biggest additions to spring training are players who joined the team midseason in 2024: Randy Arozarena and Victor Robles. Outside of that, it’s a smattering of low-cost bullpen arms trying to make the big league roster, returning of Bellingham native Austin Shenton and offseason signing Donovan Solano.

Seattle Mariners need the real Randy Arozarena in 2025

With the M’s set to run it back with largely the same offense that struggled for much of last season, the performance of star center fielder Julio Rodríguez figures to be one of the biggest determining factors in their 2025 success. But Rodríguez got off to a slow start last season before turning things around over the final few months and has shown each of three seasons that it takes a month or two (or even three) for him to put together the type of offensive showing expected by a superstar-caliber player.

The Athletic’s Eno Sarris was asked if the slow starts and a down 2024 campaign altered his opinion on the center fielder’s ceiling during a conversation with Seattle Sports’ Bump and Stacy.

“It didn’t really change much about his (potential),” said Sarris, who also hosts the Rates & Barrels podcast. “I’m a little bit surprised at how kind of streaky he is, but I think it’s a really good baseline talent that can make the right adjustment at the right moment and turn into a superstar.”

Through June 30 of last season, Rodriguez was hitting just .247 with a .624 OPS and had accumulated just 1.0 fWAR in 85 games. And the two-time Silver Slugger winner’s power numbers had declined to alarmingly low levels, as he had just six doubles and seven home runs. At that point, he was ninth on the team in extra-base hits.

Rodríguez started to find his stroke (most importantly his power stroke) once the calendar hit July. He hit .375 with a 1.122 OPS, three doubles and four home runs in just 15 games through July 22. But his hot streak was interrupted by a stint on the injured list with a high ankle sprain after he crashed into the center field wall attempting to make catch against the division rival Astros.

Seattle’s standout center fielder returned on Aug. 11, but wasn’t able to pick up where he left off and hit just .234 with a .713 OPS in 17 August games. Sarris feels that the perception of Rodríguez’s 2024 would be a little different had his July tear not been interrupted.

“Sometimes the beginning of the season is a bit of a feeling out process, and then there’s a moment where he goes white-hot,” Sarris said. “What happened last year is he got hurt in the middle of being white-hot, and that really hurt just what you think of him from an overall (stat) line because he didn’t have that month where he’s just blistering hot and he’s on fire.”

Rodríguez closed the season with a strong September, hitting .324 with an .895 OPS, five doubles and seven home runs in 26 games. It helped boost his season totals to a respectable .273/.325/.409 slash line, but the 37 total extra-base hits were a far cry from his first two seasons when he had at least 66 in each.

While the slow starts are something that need to be fixed, Sarris believes the way Rodríguez has been able to adjust and hit well late in the season are good signs for his future.

“One year you might have the second half all year and just have that peak season from him, and it could be this year,” Sarris said. “The adjustments he makes in the second half, if they pour over to the next year, that would be the best season you get from it. It would be a 30-30 season from a center fielder, an MVP discussion type season, and I still think he’s got that in him.”

Hear the full conversation at this link or in the audio player near the top of this story. Listen to Bump and Stacy weekdays from 10 a.m.-2 p.m. or find the podcast on the Seattle Sports app.

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