Stacy Rost: Why are Rams favored over Seahawks for 2026?

The Seattle Seahawks were the best team by DVOA last year. They had a dominant defense, the league’s top wide receiver, and didn’t lose a single game after Nov 16. They obliterated the 49ers, outplayed the Rams, and dominated the Patriots on their path to their Super Bowl victory.

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So why aren’t they favorites to do it again?

Up & Adams host Kay Adams posed the question earlier this week, so we spent a few days asking ourselves and our guests about their theories. Why are the Rams, who the Seahawks beat in what was essentially a best-of-three series, favorites to win the division and get to the Super Bowl?

We settled on a few reasons people favor L.A., and then decided whether or not we’re buying them:

“Matthew Stafford is better than Sam Darnold”

Sometimes it really is that simple. And honestly… fine. Stafford is exceptional.

For all the fear of Sam Darnold’s turnovers (which he does do), he was the only passer in the postseason to not throw a single interception, and he’s also the only quarterback besides Tom Brady to have 14 or more wins in consecutive seasons. He deserves credit for both.

But fans and critics just believe more in Matthew Stafford, who was last year’s NFL MVP and, more importantly, is a quarterback who’s been stellar across far more than just two seasons.

“Matthew Stafford over Sam Darnold,” Brock Huard said simply when asked why the Rams are favored. “On a national level, it’s always been about that, about the highest star power on your team. And Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford, they didn’t lose to the Seahawks – they put up 581 yards and tore the defense up and down the field. It was their defense that lost. And now they’ve traded for Trent McDuffie and they’ve done this and that and it’s just going to be ‘Matthew Stafford is greater than Sam Darnold,’ even though they went toe-to-toe in the NFC title game and Sam Darnold won. So, it’s just the track record, and Sam wasn’t MVP of the league.”

“The Rams have done it before”

Also fair. The Seahawks just won a Super Bowl and have been one of the winningest teams in the NFL over the last 15 years. But Sean McVay’s Rams have dominated the NFC West more consistently since 2017. During that period, the Rams and 49ers battled back and forth for the NFC West title and represented the NFC in the Super Bowl a combined four times. And while the 2025 Seahawks were dominant, there’s a fair amount of credit due (particularly from oddsmakers) in being an annual contender.

“The Rams added more in the offseason while the Seahawks lost players”

True, but this one deserves more context.

First, McDuffie: The Rams made a blockbuster deal for Trent McDuffie, one of the league’s best corners, while the Seahawks’ biggest move was extending Jaxon Smith-Njigba. And that’s dominating most of the discussion here.

But the Rams’ defense needed help against Seattle. These aren’t two teams that were neck and neck defensively. Everyone tends to focus on quarterbacks and offense, but the Rams allowed 27 or more points in four of their last six games to end the season. They gave up 30 or more points and 400 or more yards twice in the playoffs (for that matter, they gave up 30 or more twice to the Panthers). Adding McDuffie feels like a winning bullet point here if you think the two defenses were equal in their dominance, but they weren’t.

The Seahawks lost just one starter from their Super Bowl defense. They don’t have the depth at corner and edge that they did last year, but have made an effort to replenish both spots with three draft picks at corner and a free agent signing of Dante Fowler Jr. at edge.

As a personal aside here: Neither Kenneth Walker III, Riq Woolen, nor Boye Mafe were included in top-10 type positional previews league-wide to start the season, so I always find it a bit hypocritical when their departures — while notable — are seen as massive blows. It reminded me a bit of criticism about the trades of DK Metcalf and Geno Smith, where I felt league-wide conversations seemed to value both players more outside of Seattle instead of favoring the Seahawks when they were here. Admittedly, I felt Walker was underrated and I had quite a bit of concern about the lack of depth in that room until they added first-round pick Jadarian Price in April’s draft, but this isn’t the same as losing someone like JSN or Devon Witherspoon.

“The Seahawks got lucky in that TNF matchup”

This point gets no credit from me, but is worth noting because there are people who feel the NFC West battle could’ve unfolded much differently if the Rams beat Seattle on Thursday night in Week 16, and the single most talked about play in that game is a very controversial 2-point conversion.

My argument has always been this: there was so much more in the Rams’ control during this game and down the stretch.

This wasn’t initially a close game; the Rams surrendered a 30-14 lead. That play tied the game, but did it with more than 6 minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. That’s bad special teams play, and that’s bad defense. Speaking of poor special teams play, L.A. also had a chance to take the lead again with a field goal with just 2 minutes remaining and they missed it. You could say it’s bad luck, or you could give Seattle credit for investing significantly more cap space and draft capital in special teams than the Rams.

“The Seahawks will come back to earth and it’s hard to win the Super Bowl twice”

I’ll keep this one short: absolutely fair and true. It’s very, very hard to win the Super Bowl in consecutive seasons and it’s only happened with two franchises since 2000. But if you’re going to account for regression to the mean from one team (“JSN won’t have 1,800 yards” or “the Seahawks won’t win 14 games”) then you’ve got to also account for it from others (are we sure a 38-year-old Matthew Stafford will be an MVP again? Will Puca Nacua also have over 1,800 yards?).

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