Seahawks-Rams, Part III: Breaking down the NFC title matchup

In the eyes of most pundits, the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams separated themselves as the two best teams in the NFL this year. And after splitting a pair of epic regular-season showdowns, these bitter NFC West rivals always seemed destined for a deciding Round 3.

Seahawks-Rams Details: TV, radio and more for NFC Championship

That winner-take-all rubber match takes place in Sunday afternoon’s NFC Championship, with the top-seeded Seahawks (15-3) hosting the fifth-seeded Rams (14-5) at Lumen Field for a spot in the Super Bowl.

The Rams won these teams’ first encounter in Week 11, intercepting Sam Darnold four times in a 21-19 win at SoFi Stadium. The Seahawks returned the favor in improbable fashion in Week 16, rallying from a 16-point fourth-quarter deficit for a stunning 38-37 overtime victory at Lumen Field.

The combined score of those two matchups? Rams 58, Seahawks 57.

And the combined total yardage? Rams 830, Seahawks 829.

Yes, the difference between these two juggernauts has been that razor-thin.

As kickoff approaches, let’s take a closer look at Seahawks-Rams, Part III.

The injury situation

Both teams are pretty healthy for this late in the season.

Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold (oblique) and left tackle Charles Cross (foot) were on the injury report again this week, but both are considered good to go for Sunday. Cross didn’t play in the Week 16 matchup, so that could be a boost for Seattle.

However, the Seahawks will be without second-leading rusher Zach Charbonnet, who suffered a season-ending torn ACL in last weekend’s divisional round.

That means leading rusher Kenneth Walker III, who is enjoying the best stretch of his career, will get the lion’s share of the carries. George Holani and practice squad callups Velus Jones Jr. and Cam Akers are all options to fill the void behind Walker. Holani, who was the team’s third-string back until a hamstring injury in Week 12, was activated off injured reserve this week.

Seahawks injury report | Rams injury report

Rams edge rusher Byron Young (knee), who had a team-high 12 sacks in the regular season, is questionable but expected to play.

Meanwhile, several Rams who missed the Week 16 matchup will be on the field this time around: six-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Davante Adams, right guard Kevin Dotson, tight end Tyler Higbee and safety Quentin Lake.

Adams hauled in a league-high 14 touchdown catches this season, including a 1-yard TD against Seattle in the Week 11 matchup. However, the Seahawks otherwise did a good job of keeping him in check, as that was Adams’ lone reception of the game.

The big storyline: Turnovers

One of the few major differences between these teams in the first two matchups? The Rams’ 7-1 advantage in the turnover margin.

Turnovers were the overwhelming story in Week 11, as the Rams’ defense flustered Darnold into a nightmare four-interception performance. Seattle actually outgained the Rams 414-249 that afternoon, but a 4-1 turnover deficit was simply too much to overcome.

Turnovers were nearly the story again in Week 16, as the Seahawks lost the turnover battle 3-0 after two more Darnold interceptions and a Cooper Kupp fumble. If not for the largest fourth-quarter comeback in franchise history, Seattle again would have been left ruing those costly mistakes.

Needless to say, the Seahawks can’t afford to go minus-3 in the turnover margin again.

As such, all eyes will be on Darnold to see if he can avoid the big mistakes. Seattle’s QB1 committed a league-high 20 turnovers (14 interceptions, six fumbles) in the regular season. And over his past three matchups against the Rams – including a wild-card playoff loss with the Minnesota Vikings last season – he’s combined for just two touchdown passes and eight turnovers.

On the flip side, though the traditional stats don’t show it, Rams star quarterback and MVP front-runner Matthew Stafford has flirted with a lot of danger this season. Though he’s committed just 12 turnovers over a combined 19 regular-season and postseason games, Stafford has been attributed by Pro Football Focus with 25 turnover-worthy plays. Darnold, by contrast, has 19 turnover-worthy plays in 18 games.

In essence, Darnold has paid the price for putting the ball in compromising situations, while Stafford has had favorable luck due to opponents dropping would-be interceptions and fumbles ending up in his teammates’ hands.

Stafford has really been living on the edge lately, logging 15 turnover-worthy plays over his past six games. That includes six turnover-worthy plays over the Rams’ two playoff contests, despite only one of those plays actually resulting in a turnover.

If Darnold takes better care of the ball and Stafford’s turnover luck runs out against Seattle’s vaunted defense, the Seahawks could flip the script on Sunday.

Seahawks defense vs. Rams offense

The Rams have the league’s No. 1 scoring offense. The Seahawks have the No. 1 scoring defense.

The Rams have an offensive mastermind in head coach Sean McVay. The Seahawks have a defensive wizard in head coach Mike Macdonald – who was hired, in part, as a counterpunch to McVay’s offensive brilliance.

It’s a true heavyweight clash between two of the NFL’s top units and two of football’s most cutting-edge play-callers.

In Week 11, Macdonald’s defense had its way. Despite losing 21-19, the Seahawks limited the Rams to just 249 total yards, their second-lowest output of the season. They held Stafford to a season-low 130 passing yards and just 4.6 yards per pass attempt, the latter of which was the lowest mark of his entire 83-game tenure with the Rams.

But in the Week 16 rematch, the roles were reversed. The Seahawks rallied for a wild 38-37 overtime win, but their defense struggled mightily while allowing a franchise-record 581 total yards. Stafford threw for a whopping 457 yards – including 225 to star wideout Puka Nacua – and gashed Seattle’s vaunted defense with four completions of 40-plus yards. To put that in perspective, the Seahawks allowed just three 40-plus-yard completions over their other 17 games combined.

So, what was the difference between those two dramatically different outcomes?

One key factor was the amount of pressure Seattle’s pass rush generated. Though the Seahawks didn’t sack Stafford in either game, they forced him into more of a dink-and-dunk approach in the first matchup.

During that Week 11 clash, Stafford’s average time to throw was 2.46 seconds, which was his third-fastest mark of the season, according to PFF. As a result, he barely attacked downfield, finishing just 2 of 5 for 31 yards on throws that were targeted 10-plus yards beyond the line of scrimmage.

On the flip side, Stafford’s 2.82-second average time to throw in the Week 16 matchup was his fourth-longest mark of the season. With more time to attack the intermediate to deep areas of Seattle’s defense, he went 10 of 20 for 322 yards on passes 10-plus yards downfield.

If the Seahawks’ pass rush can speed up Stafford like it did in Week 11, that’d go a long way to helping slow down the Rams’ high-powered attack.

Seahawks offense vs. Rams defense

The Rams’ defense has been trending in the wrong direction.

Over the first 12 weeks of the season, Los Angeles allowed just 16.3 points per game and ranked No. 1 in defensive EPA, according to RBSDM.com. But from Week 13 through the divisional round of the playoffs, the Rams surrendered 26.9 points per game and ranked 18th in defensive EPA.

Shaky cornerback play has been a major culprit. Since Week 13, Rams cornerbacks Emmanuel Forbes Jr. and Cobie Durant have combined to allow 667 passing yards and nine touchdowns, according to PFF. L.A.’s run defense has been leaky as well, plummeting from seventh in yards allowed per attempt (3.9) over the first 10 weeks to 24th (4.6) since Week 11.

Meanwhile, Seattle’s offense found more of a run-pass balance down the stretch.

Over the first half of the season, Darnold and NFL receiving leader Jaxon Smith-Njigba torched opposing defenses with an explosive passing attack. But the Seahawks’ ground game lagged behind, ranking 31st in yards per carry (3.7) and 27th in rushing EPA over the first nine weeks.

Midway through the season, defenses began placing a greater emphasis on taking away big plays over the top. As a result, the Seahawks’ passing attack became much less explosive. But in the meantime, their run game rounded into form. Since Week 10, Seattle ranks ninth in yards per carry (4.6) and fourth in rushing EPA.

Of course, the Seahawks’ ground attack will look different this week without Charbonnet, who suffered a season-ending torn ACL in last week’s divisional round.

But Walker had already been getting the bulk of the carries and is playing the best football of his career, averaging 5.0 yards per carry since Week 10. That includes a combined 167 rushing yards, 6.2 yards per carry and two touchdowns in Seattle’s two matchups against the Rams, highlighted by a 55-yard TD run in Week 16.

It’s imperative that Walker and the Seahawks continue to be efficient on the ground Sunday. Staying on schedule will be vital to keeping Darnold out of obvious pass-rush situations, which is where Young and fellow Pro Bowl edge rusher Jared Verse can really wreak havoc and force Seattle’s quarterback into bad decisions.

Also, if the Seahawks have enough success on the ground, that could force Los Angeles to put another defender in the box and bite on the play-action – which in turn could help open up explosive passing opportunities against the Rams’ vulnerable cornerbacks.

The Macdonald-McVay chess match on the other side of the ball will deservedly get the bulk of the attention. But it’ll also be a fascinating tactical battle between Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak and Rams defensive coordinator Chris Shula, who both have drawn head-coaching interest from other teams.

The X-factor: Special teams

The biggest discrepancy between these teams comes in the game’s third phase.

The Seahawks have been exceptional on special teams all season long, ranking No. 2 in special teams DVOA, according to FTN Fantasy. The Rams, meanwhile, rank 26th.

Seattle’s special teams unit has delivered a slew of impact plays – two Rashid Shaheed kick return touchdowns, a Shaheed punt return TD, a Tory Horton punt return TD, two blocked field goals, a blocked punt and even a rare end-zone kickoff recovery for a touchdown.

And of course, special teams swung the Week 16 matchup, with Shaheed’s 58-yard punt return TD serving as the catalyst to the Seahawks’ dramatic fourth-quarter comeback.

In a matchup with such slim margins, another big-time play from Seattle’s special teams unit could be the difference.

Home cookin’

The Seahawks are 3-0 all-time at home in conference championship games.

They steamrolled the Carolina Panthers 34-14 in the 2005 NFC title game, they edged the San Francisco 49ers 23-17 in the 2013 NFC title game and they staged a stunning comeback for a 28-22 overtime win over the Green Bay Packers in the 2014 NFC title game.

Furthermore, the Seahawks have won 11 consecutive home playoff games with fans in the stands. Seattle’s only home playoff loss over the past two decades came in a wild-card defeat to the Rams during the 2020 COVID season.

Seattle Seahawks vs. LA Rams coverage

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