Stacy: How confidence has flipped to Seahawks over Rams in last 2 months

Two months after their first meeting, confidence has shifted to the Seattle Seahawks over the Los Angeles Rams. How’d we get here?

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Seattle and Los Angeles were No. 1 and No. 2 in DVOA entering their first matchup of the season in Week 11, but at the time there were lingering questions about Seattle’s offense, most notably a concern with the run game and whether quarterback Sam Darnold would fold against a team that knocked him out of the playoffs in 2024. Meanwhile, Matthew Stafford, the MVP frontrunner, was entering that game having thrown 20 touchdowns and no interceptions over a stretch of 6 weeks.

“I think I trust the Rams a little bit more on both sides of the ball,” NBC Sports’ Chris Simms said leading up to the first Seahawks-Rams game in November. “Not to say I don’t trust Seattle. But I just trust the Rams, and I feel like they’re a little more battle tested.”

What’s happened since then? And what’s different for Seattle?

Well, the Rams are still very, very good. They’re still No. 2 in DVOA and fought past the Panthers and Bears on the road to get their spot in Sunday’s NFC Championship.

Rams fans may still be feeling as confident as they did earlier this season. They’d probably point to Stafford’s performance in the Rams’ second matchup against Seattle: 457 passing yards, including 225 to wide receiver Puka Nacua, and a lead through three quarters. Of course, Seahawks fans could have the same argument about the first meeting, where Stafford threw for his fewest yards of the season (130) and Seattle outgained the Rams across the board… except in the final score. Guess both teams have a score to settle.

But are they the same teams? Is there more confidence in the Seahawks because the Rams dropped a late season game to the Falcons and entered the playoffs as a wild card, or is there something Seattle’s done to earn more widespread belief?

If you’re leaning toward the latter, look no further than a defense that’s been absolutely dominant, allowing just 20 points once over the last seven weeks that included a blowout of the 49ers in the divisional round, and a run game that’s exploded over the last month of the season. A Seahawks team that was 31st in yards per carry earlier this year has rushed for 160 or more in the last four games. Losing running back Zach Charbonnet hurts, but Kenneth Walker III had 1,000 yards on the season and a hat trick last Saturday.

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That, more than anything to do with Los Angeles, might be convincing people. But LA isn’t without its own questions.

While the Seahawks’ defense has throttled teams, the Rams have cooled a bit. They’ve held opponents under 20 points just twice since the first meeting with Seattle and have allowed 30 or more three times over that same timeframe. And while Stafford remains an MVP frontrunner, he – and Rams coach Sean McVay – struggled against Chicago last week.

Are they still deadly? Absolutely, and they’ve been here more recently. But the Seahawks have given proof of concept, and that’s enough for even the biggest Rams believers to hold their breath.

Seattle Seahawks-Los Angeles Rams coverage

• There’s an area of Rams’ offense Seahawks can exploit
• Do Seahawks’ hopes in NFC Championship hinge on Sam Darnold?
• By one measure, Seahawks-Rams is historically great playoff matchup
• Rams’ NFL-leading offense not in top form entering NFC title game
• Daniel Jeremiah’s key for Seattle Seahawks to win in NFC Championship

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