Seahawks-Rams: 3 numbers that matter for NFC Championship

It’s been 11 years since the Seattle Seahawks were here.

They’re hosting a conference championship game in Seattle and one win away from a Super Bowl. All due respect to the AFC, but this game’s winner will be the heavy favorite for Super Bowl LX.

Bump: The Rams player Seahawks’ D must contain in NFC Championship

Here are your three numbers that matter for this heavy weight battle between the Seahawks and Rams.

• Your first number that matters is… 53

That’s Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford’s completion percentage through two postseason games.

Stafford is the MVP frontrunner for good reason. His 46 touchdowns this season are 12 more than the next closest player (Detroit’s Jared Goff) with the same number of interceptions (eight), and for context, nearly half of those thrown by the Seahawks’ Sam Darnold (14). He’s a brilliant player.

But Stafford hasn’t looked quite as brilliant so far in the playoffs. He’s still making clutch plays, like his late touchdown to Colby Parkinson to lift the Rams past the Panthers in the wild card round, but the Rams’ passing attack just isn’t as sharp as it’s been before. Two games might be a small sample size, but that 53% completion rate is a dip from his regular season 65% completion rate.

The Rams have five pass plays of 20 or more yards over the last two games (excluding a 14-yard pass that was doubled with a defensive pass interference penalty), so it’s not like they can’t attack downfield. But that won’t be as easy in Seattle; the Seahawks haven’t allowed a play of more than 20 yards in three straight games.

Part of the issue is volume. Stafford’s 42 attempts over each of LA’s two playoff games tie for his third-most in a game this season. Not drastically out of the ordinary – if there was a quarterback you’d ask to throw it 40-plus times, Stafford would be a name you’d trust – but it also means the Rams have gotten away from the run a bit. Returning to it would be a great idea in theory… if they weren’t going against the league’s best rushing defense.

FTN Fantasy Chief Analytics Officer Aaron Schatz (the creator of DVOA) joined us Thursday on Bump and Stacy and said leaning into the run isn’t the best approach against this Seattle defense, but turning back to 13 personnel (an offensive formation with one wide receiver, one running back and three tight ends) is, particularly if it opens up your tight ends. Keep an eye on that one.

• Your second number that matters is… 0

The number of times the Seahawks have sacked Stafford in two games this season.

That feels like a trend unlikely to continue. The Seahawks brought the third most pressures in the league this year while blitzing less than 20% of the time. They’re great at getting to the quarterback, but haven’t been able to bring Stafford down yet.

Getting a “W” is more important than changing this to a “1” or a “2,” but the latter sure makes the former more likely.

• Your third number that matters is… 6

You’re going to hear this over and over… and over… again on Sunday. It’s the number of interceptions Sam Darnold has thrown against LA this year.

The number of picks thrown by Darnold was cut in half from four to two in the Seahawks’ second game against the Rams, and that came with a game-winning drive in OT. That’s good. But Darnold protecting the football is central to the Seahawks’ success in this third matchup.

Working for Darnold here is the success of Seattle’s run game over the last four weeks. The Seahawks have rushed for 160 yards or more in four consecutive games after doing it just twice in the preceding 14 weeks.

The Seattle Seahawks play the Los Angeles Rams at 3:30 p.m. Sunday in the NFC Championship at Lumen Field. Radio coverage will begin at noon with the pregame show on Seattle Sports 710 AM, KIRO Newsradio 97.3 FM, and the Seattle Sports, KIRO Newsradio and official Seahawks apps.

NFC Championship: Seattle Seahawks vs. LA Rams

• Brock: Why Rams still pose a big threat to surging Seahawks
• What weather forecast says for Seahawks-Rams NFC title game
• Seahawks coach provides update on dicey left tackle situation
• Seahawks and Rams uniforms set for NFC Championship
• Bump: What Seattle Seahawks should do vs. Rams WR Puka Nacua

Related

Seattle Sports Radio Info: How to find Saturday’s Seahawks, Mariners gamesSeahawks WR Tory Horton elaborates on last year’s ‘weird’ injuryReport: Seahawks make Devon Witherspoon NFL’s highest-paid CBSeahawks’ DeMarcus Lawrence says 2026 will be his final seasonMacdonald: Seahawks did ‘due diligence’ on CB Terrion ArnoldSalk: What’s enlightening about Seahawks going into this season