Where Mariners’ playoff odds stand after rough Baltimore series

The rain in Baltimore proved to be enough to cool off the red-hot Seattle Mariners.

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The Mariners’ post-trade-deadline surge hit a bump in the road as they dropped the final two games of a hot, wet three-game series against the Orioles at Camden Yards.

After climbing back to the top of the division for the first time since early June with a win Tuesday, the M’s fell to 1 1/2 games behind the Houston Astros for first place in the American League West. They still hold the AL’s top wild card spot, but their lead over the Boston Red Sox is down to one game.

Things don’t get any easier for the Mariners on this road trip, with three games apiece against the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies (two teams currently holding NL playoff berths) next on the schedule.

But Seattle’s playoff chances are still very high with 40 games left to play. Here’s a breakdown of where the Mariners stand in the playoff hunt.

Postseason odds

As mentioned above, the Mariners are 1 1/2 games back in their division and on top of the wild card standings by a game. They are also four games in front of the New York Yankees, who hold the third wild card berth, and five games up on the Cleveland Guardians, who are the first team out in the wild card standings.

Seattle has the fourth-best odds in the AL of making the playoffs at 92.9%, according to FanGraphs. They have a 43.8% to win the AL West, which trails the Astros’ 54.9% odds.

While there are teams with better odds to win a division and reach the playoffs, the Mariners are tied with the AL-leading Toronto Blue Jays for the best chances of winning a World Series at 8.8%. Only the Los Angeles Dodgers (17%) and Philadelphia Phillies (12.3%) have better odds.

Tiebreaker scenarios

Here is a team-by-team look at how the Mariners stack up in tiebreakers against other AL playoff contenders, which includes leaders of other divisions who could come into play for postseason seeding.

• Astros: The season series is tied at 5-5. The winner of a three-game series Sept. 19-21 in Houston will claim the head-to-head tiebreaker.

• Red Sox: With the season series over and tied at 3-3, a potential Mariners-Red Sox tie in the standings would come down to at least the second tiebreaker, which is intradivision record. The Red Sox currently hold the advantage with a 20-13 record (.606 winning percentage) against the AL East. The Mariners are 25-17 (.595) against the AL West.

• Yankees: The Yankees hold the head-to-head tiebreaker with a 5-1 record against Seattle this season.

• Guardians: The Mariners hold a 3-0 advantage in their series season with the Guardians and need to win at least one game during their three-game series Aug. 29-31 in Cleveland to clinch the head-to-head tiebreaker.

• Rangers: Seattle holds the head-to-head tiebreaker with a 10-3 record against its division rival.

• Blue Jays: The Blue Jays hold the head-to-head tiebreaker with a 4-2 record against the Mariners.

• Tigers: The Mariners hold the head-to-head tiebreaker with a 4-2 record against the Tigers.

Schedule watch

Seattle has the 20th-toughest remaining schedule with an opponents’ winning percentage of (.494), per Tankathon.

The Red Sox (.493 winning percentage), Tigers (.491), Yankees (.482) and Astros (.481) all have easier remaining schedules. The Rangers (.521), Blue Jays (.506) and Guardians (.496) have tougher remaining slates.

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