Is Julio’s new ultra-aggressive approach sustainable? Passan’s take

Since entering the big leagues in 2022, Julio Rodríguez has always had an aggressive approach at the plate.

The Seattle Mariners slugger has ramped up that aggressiveness to another level this year.

As pitching returns to strength, Passan ‘cannot give up’ on M’s

Rodríguez is swinging at the first pitch in 53.1% of his plate appearances this season, which is the fifth-highest rate in the majors, according to Baseball Reference. It’s a significant jump from his 39.6% rate over his first three MLB seasons, which was already well above league average. For context, the league-average first-pitch swing rate in recent years has hovered around 31-32%.

This season, the approach seems to have worked well for Rodríguez.

In plate appearances when he’s swung at the first pitch compared to plate appearances when he’s taken the first pitch, Rodríguez has a better batting average (.270 compared to .242), better slugging percentage (.454 compared to .359), better OPS (.750 compared to .708) and a better home-run rate (4.1% compared to 2.0%). The one category where he’s been worse is on-base percentage (.296 compared to .349).

But over the course of his four-year career, there’s less of a discrepancy.

When swinging at the first pitch, Rodríguez has a career slash line of .281/.308/.473 with a 4.6% home run rate and a .780 OPS. And when taking the first pitch, he has a relatively similar career slash line of .269/.349/.449 with a 3.7% home run rate and a .798 OPS.

During his weekly appearance Tuesday on Seattle Sports’ Brock and Salk, ESPN MLB insider Jeff Passan was asked whether Rodríguez’s new ultra-aggressive first-pitch approach is a sustainable recipe for success.

“I mean, it depends,” Passan said. “There’s always the cat-and-mouse game. If pitchers understand that your tendency is to swing at the first pitch and try and do damage, they’re going to stop throwing strikes on the first pitch. They’re going to throw you spin, it’s gonna be down, it’s gonna be off the plate. You’re not gonna see fastballs.

“But the 0-0 pitch is quite often the best one you’re going to see in any given at-bat. I was talking to a player about this (recently), and he was complaining that his team doesn’t swing at 0-0 pitches enough. And because of that, teams know that they can steal a strike. And when you’re down 0-1 in the count, it’s not (like) you can’t come back, but it’s the sort of position that’s really problematic.”

ESPN MLB insider Jeff Passan joins Brock and Salk at 8:30 a.m. each Tuesday during the baseball season. Catch Brock and Salk live from 6 to 10 a.m. weekdays on Seattle Sports.

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