Stacy: 5 Seattle Mariners questions for the second half

The MLB All-Star break is still a few weeks away, but the Seattle Mariners have already passed the official halfway point of the 162-game season, sitting at 44-41 and in position for the American League’s wild card after 85 games.

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Here are five questions we have about the M’s over the second half of the season.

Can Julio start slugging for Seattle Mariners?

“This team goes as Julio goes” was the mantra for many a sportswriter before the start of the season. And who could blame them?

Cal Raleigh was known as a power-hitting catcher who’d notched a career-high 34 home runs last year. Randy Arozarena was entering his first full season with Seattle. The Mariners were hoping a healthier Jorge Polanco could deliver at third base.

But Julio Rodríguez had always been seen as a cornerstone of the franchise — a piece that would surely help lift them to the next level. He was originally part of a duo with outfielder Jarred Kelenic, who didn’t work out (and is now with the Braves’ Triple-A team). Julio, meanwhile, was the AL Rookie of the Year in 2022, a two-time Silver Slugger, and during his hottest months looked to have MVP candidate potential.

That’s not the version fans saw last year, when Julio finished with a fine slash line (.273/.325/.429, .734 OPS) but endured a few too many slumps and couldn’t meet the hype in clutch moments. And it’s not the version fans are seeing this year, either.

Most of that’s about the bar he needs to meet, and the weight the organization has placed on his success. He’s an average bat right now who’s cut down his strikeouts but can’t find power (11 homers in 84 games), and yet the team is structured so that his power is absolutely necessary. Where are the doubles? The home runs? His slugging is hovering at a career low .401. As far as we know he isn’t dealing with injury. This feels like something that could be tweaked at the plate.

Will Cal Raleigh make history?

Raleigh already has made history by hitting more home runs than any other catcher before the All-Star break, and hitting the third-most home runs by any player before the break (so far). With another, he’d both tie Mark McGwire, and tie the career-high of 34 he set last year. He’s on pace for over 60 homers but will have to work through the toll his body takes as an everyday catcher to get there.

Let’s say he falls short of 60. Well, that’s still a massive, record-setting season. Should he surpass 48, he’d hold the new record for home runs in a single season by a catcher, beating the record set by Kansas City’s Salvador Perez in 2021. And he gets to 57, it would give him the new M’s franchise record for most home runs in a single season.

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Is there anyone else who can carry the load?

Randy Arozarena has hit three bombs over two games already this week. Donovan Solano is improving. Luke Raley is back. The rookie Cole Young is heating up. Can any single player — or can a platoon of bats — help boost this Mariners’ offense in the second half?

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Seattle’s best bet is the first question on this list: Julio Rodríguez. Say what you will about your own frustration watching him, but in terms of pure physical talent and ceiling, he’s the best this team has. They’ll need more, though.

Perhaps it’s an addition at the deadline. Are the Diamondbacks willing to part with Josh Naylor? Would the Baltimore Orioles deal Ryan O’Hearn? Either way, the Mariners will need someone not named Cal to drive in runners.

Can the Seattle Mariners’ rotation re-establish dominance?

Counting on a fully healthy and elite starting rotation was always going to be a risk. You can’t say the Mariners were counting on it; it’s precisely why they didn’t trade Emerson Hancock or any of their more established starters. But they probably weren’t expecting that three separate members of the rotation spending time on the injured list early this season.

George Kirby didn’t make his debut until May 22. Logan Gilbert landed on the IL with a right elbow flexor strain (one that briefly had fans fearing the worst) in late April but returned in mid-June. Bryce Miller is now on his second IL stint with right elbow inflammation.

In the meantime, Seattle has turned to Hancock, who struggled Tuesday against the Kansas City Royals. They also have rookie right-hander Logan Evans, who has been back in Triple-A over the last month but did well in seven starts (3.38 ERA) in the big leagues.

In theory, all but one of Seattle’s regular starters is currently healthy. But the pitching doesn’t quite have the dominant presence it did last season. Considering the team’s self-stated identity rests on that, we’re looking to Kirby and Gilbert to look a bit more like their 2024 selves in the second half of 2025.

It doesn’t help that pitching has been central to the Astros’ ability to build up a now seven-game lead on Seattle in the AL West.

Will the Astros come back down to earth?

Please, I beg of you: don’t make another team’s failure part of your success plan. Particularly if that team is the always-a-thorn-in-your-side Houston Astros.

That said, Houston was the winningest team in June with a 19-7 record. Their pitching has been elite and has made up for a relatively average to lackluster offense. They have this really annoying thing happening where the pitching shows up when the offense doesn’t, and vice versa. Don’t you just hate that?

The Mariners had more runs through the second half. The only AL West team to score fewer than the Astros is the Texas Rangers, who’ve been abysmal there. Houston’s offense scored a total of five runs combined across three games against the Phillies… and swept them, shutting them out in two of those games and allowing just one run in another.

So no, you absolutely should not count on the Astros losing. But might they cool a bit if they don’t add the bat they need at the deadline?

More Seattle Mariners coverage

• Houston Astros’ flaws could open window for Mariners to catch them
• M’s prospect Arroyo among highest risers in MLB Pipeline update
• Julio’s defense in center field has a ‘separator’ from others
• MiLB Injury Update: Latest on top Mariners’ prospect Farmelo
• Cal Raleigh a big factor in Seattle Mariners’ MLB-leading stat

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