Stacy Rost: 3 reasons why critics should buy into Mariners

Saying it’s simply “too early” in May to buy stock into any baseball team’s success is a perfectly fair reason to hold off judgment. But even then, some critics are hesitant to buy what the first-place Seattle Mariners are selling.

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You can’t blame them. After all, there are several fair reasons to hit the pause button on celebrating any early spring stretch of success. But in a down year for the American League – and with a few key differences from last season – there are also three reasons to think what the Mariners have so far this year is going to work.

Why critics aren’t buying in yet

1. Past trends

You know why betting on the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl every year feels boring? Because it’s the safe bet. But it’s one Kansas City has earned by virtue of appearing in each of the last seven AFC championship games and three of the last four Super Bowls. Even when Patrick Mahomes is throwing to a receiving corps that leads the league in drops, betting against the Chiefs feels like a mistake (and it was; they still won).

So, when a panel of MLB Network analysts pick the Houston Astros as the team to beat in the AL West, it’s fair game to point to their history of overcoming the rest of the division.

Houston has won the AL West in seven of the past eight seasons and has four World Series appearances during that time. It’s been a surreal stretch of dominance, one that wasn’t hindered even by the Mariners’ 10-game division lead last season.

Meanwhile, the Rangers have taken the crown four times since Seattle last did in 2001 and still have several key pieces from their World Series title. (Is that World Series offense raking today? No, they just fired their hitting coach, but they were a sexy pick to win the division at the start of the season and plenty of critics will be bullish there.)

The Mariners have had hot starts, winning streaks and division leads since 2001… and all have been squandered.

2. Jorge Polanco isn’t Aaron Judge

It wasn’t long ago that a struggling, strikeout-prone Jorge Polanco was being greeted by boos in a bad season with Seattle. This year, he’s their best bat, and that’s a genuinely great story. Polanco is hitting .340 with nine home runs and a 1.067 OPS, which is phenomenal… and also unsustainable. And that’s OK!

The Mariners don’t need Polanco to play like Barry Bonds to get them to a World Series (though it would be great if he did). They just can’t have him striking out as often as he did last season. You have a pretty good idea of who a 31-year-old player is. Just as Polanco’s 29.2% strikeout rate last season was uncharacteristic, so too are some of his off-the-chart numbers this year.

Critics are always going to be more comfortable betting on a team with a ton of production from a star slugger like Aaron Judge (or even a young phenom) as opposed to what they – likely – see as a hot streak from a solid player.

Another thing they might be overlooking? Contribution from under-the-radar batters in the No. 7-9 spots (like Leo Rivas, currently leading Seattle in on-base percentage) or a bounceback campaign from a healthier J.P. Crawford (slashing .285/.401/.382 with 23 walks).

The offense has also improved a ton, but still has question marks. The Mariners have cut way down on strikeouts and are tied for fifth in home runs, but they’re still middle of the pack when it comes to batting average.

3. They have elite pitching… but it’s not here right now

National voices undoubtedly have the most faith in the Mariners’ rotation, but they’re banged up right now.

George Kirby is working his way back, but has yet to debut with the club in 2025, while Logan Gilbert has been out with a Grade 1 flexor strain. In a recent interview with MLB Network, Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto sounded optimistic both would be back relatively soon, but in the meantime, a former strength of the club is dealing with volatility.

That includes uneven outings from Bryce Miller as well, and a reliance on young arms Emerson Hancock and Logan Evans.

Those are three reasons critics are doubting Seattle. But there are three reasons they should buy in…

Why critics should buy in

1. It’s a down year for the American League

A top-five power ranking for MLB might have… what… one American League team in it now?

During an appearance on Bump and Stacy, ESPN’s Buster Olney said he could never remember a time when there was a such a gap between the NL and AL. It might not be as satisfying for a neutral observer, but it’s great news for a Mariners team that doesn’t have to fight past the Dodgers, Mets, Cubs, Padres or Giants.

“If you’re an American League team and you’re leading your division as the Mariners are, or even if you’re in second or third place, the league is generally down so much that you can paint a reasonable path of playing in the World Series,” Olney said.

2. Are we sure these are the same Rangers and Astros?

Olney also questions the overall strength of the two teams who have more recently stood in Seattle’s way.

“The Rangers thought coming into this year that they were really going to hit,” Olney said. “Jack Peterson went 21 days without a hit. Marcus Semien has been dropped into the middle of the lineup. We saw the Houston Astros on Sunday Night Baseball two weeks ago. Guys, it’s not the same team, because there’s no Correa, no Springer. Yordan Alvarez doesn’t have nearly the sort of support around him.

“If you’re the Mariners, when healthy, they probably have the best starting pitching in the league (and) their offense is at least comparable to some of the teams that they’re going up against.”

3. Not all “good” Mariners teams are the same

When they had a 10-game lead in the division last season, the Mariners had a plus-19 run differential. Right now, they’re plus-28.

Prior to the All-Star Break last year (that lead was in June), the Mariners were 10th in home runs, led the league in strikeouts and were hitting .219 as a team. It was a massive lead, but from a team that was leaning heavily on its starting rotation and some close wins.

This year’s squad? They’re 16th in strikeouts, tied for fifth in home runs and are hitting .246 as a team.

More on the Seattle Mariners

• What is Jorge Polanco’s role now with the Seattle Mariners?
• Early Seattle Mariners Trade Targets: 4 bats at corner infield spots
• Rowland-Smith: The big step taken by Seattle Mariners’ Bryan Woo
• MLB Network’s Virk: When to buy in to first-place Seattle Mariners
• Seattle Mariners get respect in new ESPN MLB power rankings – kinda

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