Where Mariners’ dwindling playoff hopes stand with 15 games left

The Seattle Mariners are now seven games into the soft final 22-game stretch of their regular season schedule, and their performance thus far hasn’t helped their dwindling hopes of getting back to the playoffs.

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The Mariners dropped three of four to a lowly Athletics team to begin their most recent homestand, which sent Seattle in the wrong direction at a time it could ill afford. The M’s did rebound to take two of three from the Texas Rangers this week, but even so, Seattle has won just five of its last 14 games.

With a 69-78 record entering a nine-game road trip that starts Friday, the Mariners’ push for the postseason is essentially on life support. But thanks to the continued sorry state of the American League and more light competition to come, Seattle still can’t be officially ruled out for October baseball.

Let’s take a look at where the M’s and their hopes for a spot in the AL field for the playoffs stand with 15 games remaining in their regular season schedule.

The AL West

The Houston Astros (75-72) lead the division by three games over the Texas Rangers (72-75) and six games over the Mariners.

If the Mariners were to win all 15 of their remaining games, they would finish with an 84-78 record. With Seattle holding a tiebreaker advantage over Houston by winning the season series against the Astros, then the Astros would need to finish with an 85-77 record in this scenario to beat the M’s in the division standings. That means Houston’s magic number – combined Astros wins and Mariners losses – to eliminate Seattle from AL West title contention is 10.

The magic number paints a rosier picture than looking at the situation another way.

If Houston stays on its current pace of a .510 winning percentage through Game 162, it would finish with an 83-79 record. In that case, the Mariners would need to go 14-1 the rest of the way to match the Astros and win the tiebreaker.

The third wild card

The Mariners’ best shot at sneaking into the playoffs is in the wild card race, but it could be trickier to navigate because of how many teams remain alive. Between Seattle and the Cleveland Guardians, who are in position for the third and final wild card with a 74-73 record, there are another four teams.

If we just focus on Cleveland, it can mathematically eliminate the M’s from contention by reaching 84 wins. The Guardians would have to go 10-5 over their last 15 games to finish at 84-78, which would be no easy task as they still have to face the Twins (who are a half-game ahead of Seattle in the playoff race at 69-77), the AL Central-leading White Sox (75-71), a suddenly streaking Athletics team (59-88 but have won six of their last eight), the likely postseason-bound Red Sox (80-67), and a Royals squad that has disappointed (65-82 record) but went on a 12-1 run in late August.

Should Cleveland finish the season with its current .503 winning percentage, it would end on an 82-80 record. That puts Seattle in the same spot it is in with the Astros, which would mean going 14-1 to finish at 83-79.

The schedule

The Mariners continue to have the easiest strength of schedule remaining in baseball, with their opponents over the final 15 games combining for a .403 winning percentage this season.

Next up is the Athletics, who did just get the better of the M’s in Seattle last weekend. But the season series between the two AL West rivals is even at 5-5, and the A’s have struggled at their temporary home stadium in Sacramento both against Seattle (the M’s swept their one three-game road series against the A’s) and in general (27-45 home record) this season.

On Monday, the M’s will head to Anaheim to start a three-game set with a 59-90 Angels team that Seattle has beaten four times in six meetings this year. The Mariners and Angels will also wrap up the season with four games in Seattle from Sept. 24-27.

At the end of this current road trip, the M’s will visit the Colorado Rockies, who at 55-91 are the only team in MLB with a worse record than the Angels. The Rockies have won just 42% of their home games (30-41).

The only team Seattle has left to play with a winning record are the Astros, who will visit for two games at T-Mobile Park on Sept. 22-23. The Mariners have dominated Houston not just this year (9-2 record vs. Houston) but going back to 2023, so if the Astros happen to struggle over the next week and a half, this is where things would suddenly get very interesting.

Up next

The Mariners Radio Network broadcast of all games will be live on the Seattle Sports app and Seattle Sports 710 AM.

• Friday: Mariners (George Kirby, 9-11, 4.18 ERA) at Athletics (Jeffrey Springs, 4-13, 6.02 ERA), 6:40 p.m.

Mariners Radio Network pregame starts at 5:30 p.m.

• Saturday: Mariners (Bryan Woo, 11-9, 4.03 ERA) at Athletics (Gage Jump, 6-10, 5.12 ERA), 6:40 p.m.

Mariners Radio Network pregame starts at 5:30 p.m.

• Sunday: Mariners (Bryce Miller, 4-9, 4.22 ERA) at Athletics (Jacob Lopez, 6-4, 4.78 ERA), 1:05 p.m.

Trident Talk starts at 11 a.m., followed by the Mariners Radio Network pregame at noon.

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