A telling stat for the Mariners’ offensive issues this year

A lot has gone wrong for the Seattle Mariners to have the type of disappointing season they’re having.

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There has been injuries. There has been in-game decision making that has been costly. And there has been underperformance from several of the club’s top players.

Of all the players who haven’t lived up to expectations this season, the struggles of center fielder Julio Rodríguez and catcher Cal Raleigh have been among the biggest disappointments. After combining for 13.8 bWAR and 92 homers a year ago, the pair have provided Seattle with just 3.6 bWAR and 41 homers through 144 games this season.

And with Rodríguez and Raleigh not providing what was expected, the Mariners’ offense ranks last in baseball averaging 3.95 runs per game.

During a conversation with Seattle Sports’ Brock and Salk on Monday, Mariners analyst and former MLB first baseman Ryon Healy pointed to how pitchers have approached Rodríguez and Raleigh this year as a contributing factor to the down years for both, and how Raleigh has started to make the adjustments needed to counter the approach from opponents. 

“The pitches in zone that Julio and Cal see is so low,” Healy said. “I don’t know if you guys have noticed this, but it’s like nearly 50% the pitches that they see (are) in zone because (pitchers) know that those guys all year long will expand. So, if you know you have a hitter that will expand the strike zone, why do you throw in the strike zone as a pitcher?

“But Cal’s made that adjustment the last few weeks, and he looks like the most dangerous hitter once again in this Mariners lineup.”

To Healy’s point about pitchers avoiding the strike zone against Raleigh and Rodríguez: Raleigh has seen just 42.4% pitches in the zone this year, the fourth-lowest mark in MLB and down 3.5% from last year. His 35.7% swing rate on pitches outside the zone is the 33rd-highest in baseball. Rodríguez has seen 43.7% of pitches in the zone, the eighth-lowest mark and down 5.7% from last year. His 39.1% swing rate on pitches outside the zone is the 14th-highest in MLB. 

Cal flipping the script

After extended struggles, Raleigh has been among the league’s best hitters for the past couple of weeks. Over his past 15 games, the switch-hitting catcher is 19 for 53 at the plate with a .358/.452/.887 slash line, eight homers, nine walks and 17 strikeouts.

Healy has seen the 2025 AL MVP runner-up make some key adjustments of late.

“Honestly, Cal’s stopped swinging early in counts in a lot of at-bats, especially early on in games. He’s forced pitchers to come into the box to where now when he’s getting the pitch in the box, he’s able to do damage on it,” Healy said.

Healy pointed to a moment in Sunday’s game when Raleigh choked up in a two-strike count and delivered an RBI single as another example of the adjustments Raleigh is making.

“There’s a progression from his at-bats when it starts to finish where he’s allowing what the pitcher is doing to tell him where to go next,” Healy said. “He’s using the information that’s being presented to him and he’s attacking the next pitch with intent. And then also the simple answer here is he’s covering the fastball at the top of the zone. He moved his hands a little bit higher, he’s able now to be more direct to that baseball. And once you get validation of that that as a hitter of, ‘Wow, I can finally hit that pitch I’ve been missing all year.’ He’s able to move on to the next thing, which is ‘What’s the gameplan for this guy today.’”

Julio yet to adjust

While it’s been an upward trajectory from Raleigh recently, the same can’t be said for Rodríguez. Over his past 15 games, the 25-year-old center fielder is 10 for 64 at the plate and running a meager .156/.182/.250 slash line with one homer, two walks and 23 strikeouts. 

The past couple weeks have contributed to unusually unproductive second half for Rodríguez, who’s known for his second-half surges. Since the All-Star break, he’s batting just .207 with a .596 OPS and 53 strikeouts to 13 walks.

“There’s so many at-bats where it’s just like an 0-0 swing on a fastball in that just beats him, and you’re like, ‘why swing at it?’” Healy said. “Well, I stood in the batter’s box, I know how hard it is to make those swing decisions. Like, pitchers are really good, and when you’re trying to get hits, it’s really hard. And it just feels like the hardest thing that Julio has to do is learn how to eliminate certain parts of the zone and just work on the swing discipline and the swing decisions and becoming more stubborn with both of those.

“How you train that I really believe is the hardest thing to do in this sport because as a hitter, you’re on offense but you don’t know what pitch is coming, so you’re responding to everything. But there are players that have done it. You think of a PCA – a Pete Crow-Armstrong – I feel like that’s been the biggest separator for him this year now putting him in MVP contention.”

Healy has yet to see Rodríguez make those sort of strides with plate discipline. 

“That game planning takes a higher level of thought and layers deeper in the approach onion that players have to work to get to that I don’t see him taking that next step in,” Healy said. “But the tools and the skills and the quality of player is there. It’s just, when do those next levels get unlocked in his game?”

Seattle Sports’ Brent Stecker contributed to this post. 

Hear the full conversation at this link or in the audio player in this story. Listen to Brock and Salk weekdays from 6-10 a.m. or find the podcast on the Seattle Sports app. 

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