Mariners’ biggest problem compounded by bad luck

Facing left-handed pitching has been a problem for the Seattle Mariners this season.

The Mariners feature a very left-handed-heavy lineup, and their platoon bats from the right side haven’t produced much.

Mariners get All-Star Randy Arozarena back from IL; OF optioned to Triple-A

Seattle is last in MLB in batting average (.208), slugging percentage (.326), OPS (.619) and wOBA (.279) against left-handed pitching. It’s also second to last in on-base percentage (.293) and wRC+ (81).

ESPN’s Jeff Passan discussed the Mariners’ struggles against left-handed pitching this year during a conversation with Seattle Sports’ Brock and Salk on Tuesday. He acknowledged the team has been bad against southpaws but also pointed out how some bad luck has made their numbers even worse than they could be.

“When I’m looking at the numbers of the Mariners versus left-handed pitching, the one thing that stands out beyond them being bad – like they’re undeniably bad – but they have a .245 average on balls in play,” Passan said. “So that means anything that’s put in the field of play, not home runs, is landing for a hit a little bit less than 25% of the time.”

If the Mariners’ BABIP luck against lefties remains the same until the end of the season, it would reach historic levels.

“Over the last five years in Major League Baseball, not a single team has had a BABIP – batting average on balls in play – against left-handed pitching below right around .260,” Passan said. “So, I think the Mariners are in line for some positive regression at some point. I’m not saying they’re going to be good. I’m just saying on top of bad, they have also been unlucky.”

Who’s been bit by BABIP most

Which Mariners have had the worst luck against lefties thus far and could be in line for the most positive regression?

There are three players currently on the 26-man roster with a BABIP under .200 in at least 30 plate appearances against lefties: Colt Emerson (.133), Rob Refsnyder (.158) and Cal Raleigh (.194).

Refsnyder stands out the most here due to his lengthy track record of crushing left-handed pitching, which is what he was brought in to do when he signed a one-year contract with the M’s during the offseason.

Refsnyder hasn’t had a BABIP against southpaws below .354 in any season since 2021, which was when he began to break out as premier platoon bat from the right side. However, there is a clear difference in what the 35 year old is doing this year against left-handed pitching compared to the past few seasons. His 26.7% hard-hit rate and 10% line-drive rate are his lowest since 2017, and his 25% soft-contact rate is his highest since the same season.

Hear the full conversation with ESPN’s Jeff Passan at this link. Listen to Brock and Salk weekdays from 6-10 a.m. or find the podcast on the Seattle Sports app. 

Seattle Mariners news and more

• Seattle Mariners prospect Felnin Celesten showcasing newfound power
• Bob Stelton: Seattle Mariners’ J.P. Crawford again shows immense leadership
• Top prospect Kade Anderson extends long scoreless streak

Related

AL-best Rays beat Mariners 4-1 to complete sweepMariners come up short in 3-2 loss to RaysIconic broadcaster Rick Rizzs to join Mariners Hall of FameMariners unveil the top 50 players in franchise historyMariners reliever Carlos Vargas to begin rehab assignmentStacy: As Mariners honor their greats, can current stars get going?