Two key questions for Mariners in the postseason

The Seattle Mariners are about to experience a first-time playoff luxury for the franchise, which is having a bye through the first round of games in MLB’s 12-team playoff format that was implemented in 2022.

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The Mariners, who clinched a playoff berth Tuesday and the American League West the following night, wrapped up a top-two seed and bye through the AL wild card round Thursday night.

After the regular season finishes Sunday, the M’s will have five days off before hosting their first playoff game Saturday, Oct. 4. Between now and then, the Mariners will have some tough choices to make for the postseason.

During Friday’s edition of Seattle Sports’ Brock and Salk, co-host Mike Salk and Brock Huard, as well as producer Lyle Goldstein, discussed two important questions the M’s are facing for their playoff run.

Who starts Game 1?

After a strong season highlighted by his consistency and durability on the mound, right-hander Bryan Woo has a very strong case to be the Mariners’ starter for their first playoff game. However, Woo is recovering from mild inflammation in his pectoral muscle that cropped up during his start last week in Houston.

Woo didn’t make his scheduled start Thursday, but did a light throwing session on the field pregame.

MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer pointed out that if the Mariners were to keep Woo on a five-day routine with Thursday’s throwing session counting as a normal start day, he would be lined up to pitch Game 2 of the ALDS on Sunday, Oct. 5.

If woo were to end up pitching Game 2, Salk asked who would be the Game 1 starter.

“Is it Luis (Castillo) so that you guarantee you get him at home? And he has been phenomenal here over the course of the last few weeks,” Salk said. “Is it Logan (Gilbert)? He was your opening-day starter and, by all accounts, the best pitcher on your team.”

Salk pointed out that the decision could end up impacting much more than just the first game if the series were to go a full five.

“Whoever starts Game 1 starts Game 5. So in that regard, it becomes a big deal,” he said.

Another potential factor in the decision-making process could be the home-road splits Mariners starters have. Gilbert, Castillo and George Kirby each have considerably better ERAs at home. Woo’s numbers are also better at home, but the splits aren’t nearly as drastic.

“There’s almost a case to be made that Bryan Woo should be your Game 3 starter, and that maybe that helps line him up for a couple of starts in the second series,” Salk said. “But I don’t know, man. You don’t want to be down 0-2 and now sort of being desperate with your best pitcher. So, it does get a little funky just because of some of the home-road splits that these guys have had.”

Goldstein, who also co-hosts “The Marine Layer Podcast,” thinks the answer isn’t quite as complicated.

“I don’t think it’s a question, you’re starting Logan Gilbert (in Game 1),” Goldstein said. “… You can’t plan it out to have your best pitchers throwing on the road just because you’re gonna play on the road later in the series. You gotta throw your best arms in the first two games and try and go up 2-0.”

How do they construct the roster?

Rosters will go back down to 26 players when the playoffs start, meaning at least two players currently with the big league club won’t be on the roster for the ALDS.

Teams have a chance to get creative with their roster constructions in the postseason. They just can’t carry more than 13 pitchers.

Salk wondered what would be the right balance for the Mariners in a best-of-five series.

“You can go with 14 hitters and 12 pitchers if you want to, and I think there’s a pretty reasonable case to be made (for it),” he said. “You could go with 15 and 11, but I think the threat of injury, the threat of what happens if somebody gets blown out, probably mitigates 15 and 11. But OK, 14 and 12 instead of 13 and 13 really changes things.”

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Salk pointed to 12 position players that are either locks or near-locks for the playoff roster: Cal Raleigh, Mitch Garver, Josh Naylor, Jorge Polanco, Eugenio Suárez, J.P. Crawford, Randy Arozarena, Julio Rodríguez, Victor Robles, Dominic Canzone, Leo Rivas and Luke Raley.

“What do you do with your last spot or two?” Salk asked. “Are you gonna have Garver DH versus lefties in the postseason? You can. Or do you want Polanco at DH in those games and let Rivas play second (base). One’s better defensively, one’s maybe a little better offensively. That changes things, because if you want Garver as the DH, there’s an advantage to bringing a third catcher like Harry Ford as one of your bench players. If not, then you don’t need Harry Ford and you can maybe be a little bit more aggressive.”

Salk also was curious if Cole Young has a role with Rivas in the fold.

“Is he on your playoff roster? Do you see a role for Cole Young? I think he’s pretty redundant with Rivas,” Salk said. “So then what do you want for the Cole Young spot? Do you want to bring up (Ben) Williamson as a potential late-game defensive replacement at third base? Do you want to bring up Samad Taylor, who’s been essentially a non-factor this year, but has stolen 44 bags in Tacoma and can play all over the place?”

In Salk’s 14-position-player, 12-pitcher playoff roster, he sees Seattle’s five starters plus Andrés Muñoz, Matt Brash, Gabe Speier, Eduard Bazardo, Caleb Ferguson, Carlos Vargas and Emerson Hancock as the arms the Mariners should choose to carry.

But Goldstein believes an even 13-13 split between position players and pitchers is the way Seattle should go.

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