Two Takes: Insiders still believe in Cal’s MVP chances

Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh is set to be at the center of one of MLB’s biggest storylines over the final six weeks of the season.

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Raleigh finds himself running side by side with Yankees slugger Aaron Judge in what has been a two-horse race for the American League MVP award for quite some time now.

Judge has been the favorite for much of the way while putting up absurd numbers at the plate, which have him in line for one of the best offensive seasons the game has ever seen.

Raleigh is having a historical season of his own while crushing home run records and providing unprecedented offensive punch for a catcher. He even briefly surpassed Judge as the award favorite when the Yankees’ star went on the injured list with a flexor strain in his right elbow in late July.

But Raleigh’s numbers dipped while Judge spent a brief stint on the IL. The Mariners slugger hit just .222 with a .735 OPS despite homering three times during the nine-game stretch, and Judge is once again the favorite for the AL MVP, per ESPN.

ESPN MLB insiders Jeff Passan and David Schoenfield shared their opinions on the AL MVP chase during appearances on the Seattle Sports airwaves Tuesday.

Passan’s take

The overall offensive numbers heavily favor Judge. His MLB-best 1.134 OPS is nearly 200 points above the .949 number Raleigh has posted. Judge’s 200 wRC+ (100 is league average) is also by far the best in baseball and 39 points above Raleigh’s 161.

“This is a really tough one for me, and it’s tough because I’ve been involved in these like, ‘let’s assess the difference between a guy who’s really awesome at hitting and a guy who’s really awesome at everything, but not quite as awesome as at hitting as the first one,” Passan told Seattle Sports’ Brock and Salk. “I’ve tried to look through these in past cases, and normally it’s like if there’s a 100-point difference in OPS, then, yeah, you can rationalize that the guy’s defense is going to make up for that, or his baserunning or his all-around play.”

Raleigh has provided defensive value at catcher that’s more than what Judge has provided right field. Raleigh’s value with the glove shows up in the fWAR comparison between the two. Raleigh’s 7.0 fWAR is just behind Judge’s 7.4 despite the large gap in offensive numbers.

“When I used to vote on awards like MVP, I would consult WAR, but I would not abide by it,” Passan said. “If I felt like there was a player who was more valuable and WAR disagreed, then I was fine going against it because I look at wins above replacement not as this biblical thing that’s written and that you must adhere to, but rather as something that points you in the right direction to the general value of a player, and then you can figure out how close to accurate you believe it is and what your priorities are.

“As of right now, if I were voting for MVP today, I don’t know what I would do. I would probably lean Raleigh 51 times and Judge 49 times. It’s that much of a coin flip to me at this point.”

Passan said that Judge’s injury limiting him to a role as a designated hitter only since returning Aug. 5 will also factor in when the award is voted on. He ultimately feels if Raleigh reaches the 57 home runs he’s on pace for, which would be an MLB record for both catchers and switch-hitters as well as a Mariners club record, the award should be his.

“I think if he gets to 57 home runs, he wins the MVP,” Passan said.

Schoenfield’s take

While the odds for winning AL MVP have swung pretty strongly back to Judge’s favor, Schonefield believes the race should very much still be up for debate due to the fact Raleigh is doing what he is while dealing with the physical rigors of catching daily.

“He’s going to break the record for home runs. His on-base, because he draws a lot of walks, is still high,” Schoenfield said. “Yeah, the average has dipped lately, but when he hits a home run, they seem to be two- or three-run homers. So, he’s still driving in a lot of runs. He’s a good defensive catcher. He plays every day, and you have to factor in that catcher thing.

“… I get it, Judge’s overall offensive numbers – the triple-slash numbers – are off the charts,” he added. “But, to me, it should absolutely be a great MVP debate.”

Schoenfield could see the race could ultimately coming down to who has the best final month of the season.

“With both those teams battling to get into the playoffs, win a wild card, win a division, whoever has the big September could end up winning the award just based on that last month,” Schoenfield said.

Hear the full conversation with Jeff Passan here and David Schoenfield here. Brock and Salk airs weekdays from 6-10 a.m. and Bump and Stacy weekdays from 10 a.m.-2 p.m. Find the podcasts on the Seattle Sports apps. 

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