Based on precedence, a big Mariners run should be coming soon

It’s hard to remember a time when the Seattle Mariners struggled as bad going into the final quarter of the season as they have this year.

Seattle Mariners claim pitcher away from AL West rival Texas

The Mariners are just 9-19 since July 7, which is when they started a brutal six-game road trip through Florida just ahead of the MLB All-Star break. Over that time, they’ve dropped from three games over .500 (47-44) and 1 1/2 games up for the AL West lead to seven games under .500 (56-63) and 4 1/2 back of the division-leading Houston Astros.

How the Mariners have performed offensively has been particularly worrisome. Since July 7, the Mariners have scored just 90 runs – less than all but one other MLB team (the Los Angeles Angels have scored 86 runs over the same stretch) – for an average of just 3.21 runs per game. The M’s are also second-to-last over that stretch with a .221 team batting average, just one point better than the New York Yankees.

There hasn’t been much indication on the field that the Mariners are about to turn a corner, but if we look at recent history, they do tend to get hot right around this point in the season. In each of the past four years, the M’s have reeled off at least one significant winning streak over the final two months of the regular season that has helped them win at least 85 games every season since 2021.

That hasn’t always been enough to get Seattle over the hump, but there’s one key difference this year. The AL West title and playoff spots in the American League are more attainable than ever, with the Tampa Bay Rays (72-46) the only AL team more than five games over .500. Even though the Mariners are in third place in the AL West, they have the best run differential in the division, and they’re still just four games out of the final AL wild card spot entering Tuesday’s series opener at Yankee Stadium.

That means if the Mariners can put together a run like any of these from the past four years, they’ll probably be right in the postseason mix, if not comfortably back in playoff position.

Late-season Mariners runs since 2022

• Sept. 6-25, 2025

The Mariners reeled off a 17-1 run in the final month of the regular season last year to surge to the AL West title and even get a bye through the wild card round of the playoffs. Entering Sept. 6, the Mariners were 73-68 and four games back in the division. They finished the season with a 90-72 record, and at one point were as many as five games up in the AL West.

• Sept. 4-29, 2024

The Mariners were just a smidge under .500 at 69-70 before they went 16-7 over a 23-game stretch under new manager Dan Wilson, who took over in late August. Though the strong September run wasn’t enough to wrest the division from the hands of the Houston Astros, the Mariners finished the year 85-77, just a game out of making the postseason.

• Aug. 2-28, 2023

Seattle caught absolute fire in August 2023 with a 20-4 run that took it from six games back in the AL West to leading the division. The Mariners went from 55-52 to 75-56 over this stretch, but they unfortunately ran out of gas in the final month. They went just 12-17 in September to finish with an 88-74 record, two games behind the Astros and eventual World Series champion Texas Rangers, who tied atop the AL West at 90-72, and a game out of a wild card berth.

• Aug. 9-Sept. 4, 2022

The Mariners ended their long postseason drought thanks in part to this 17-6 run going into the final 18 games of the regular season. It didn’t make much of a dent in the AL West, where Houston was firing on all cylinders on its way to its second championship in franchise history, but it sure did in the wild card race, setting the stage for Cal Raleigh’s historic walk-off homer against the Athletics.

• Aug. 11-24 and Sept. 19-29, 2021

A couple of smaller runs slapped together helped the Mariners nearly end the drought a year early in 2021. First was a 9-3 stretch in mid-August that took Seattle from 59-55 and 5 1/2 games out of a playoff spot to 69-58 and three games back. Then with the M’s at 79-69 and four games back with just 14 games left to go, they got going again with a 9-1 run that put them just a half-game out in the last year when there were just two wild cards to go around instead of three. Seattle lost two of its last three games that season, however, to finish 90-72, two wins short of the postseason.

Seattle Mariners news and more

• Iconic broadcaster Rick Rizzs to join Mariners Hall of Fame
• Mariners unveil the top 50 players in franchise history
• Two Seattle Mariners trade deadline nuggets from MLB insiders

Related

Mariners-Yankees Lineups: No Josh Naylor for series openerRob Refsnyder may have retired over joining Mariners rivalRick Rizzs ‘still walking on a cloud’ after Mariners HOF revealMariners claim pitcher away from AL West rival Texas RangersReport: D-backs to DFA former Mariners closer Paul SewaldM’s trade addition Boston Smith hits 5 HRs in first 6 games with AA Arkansas