Stacy’s Fact-O-Meter: Panic or not about the Mariners?

The Seattle Mariners are 40-39 and in first place in the AL West, but after a disappointing series loss to the worst team in the American League, you might be wondering whether they’ve got some serious problems they won’t be able to overcome.

Logan Gilbert to start next Mariners’ piggyback outing

What’s going on with the M’s? Let’s run through a few things on the Fact-O-Meter.

They had roughly the same record in 2025

Last year, Seattle finished its season with 90 wins and made it all the way to Game 7 of the ALCS. But on June 23, 2025, they were hovering just a few games over .500 (40-37) and sat in second place in the division. Which is… about where they are right now, though this time the division is worse. Some of their most frustrating baseball was still to come, including a July series against the Yankees in the Bronx in which they’d carry a Bryan Woo no-hitter and five-run lead into the 8th inning… before losing 6-5 (no spoilers for those 2025 fans, let them feel that anger for themselves when it happens!).

But there’s a major difference

Here we are getting to what matters. A similar record means nothing when it doesn’t feel like the Mariners are A-OK… and it doesn’t always feel that way because Cal Raleigh very much isn’t.

The M’s record might’ve been similar on June 23, 2025, but Raleigh was hitting .281 with a 1.053 OPS with over 30 home runs already by that date. In fact, he went 2 for 5 on June 24 and hit his 32nd home run — his fourth straight game at the time with a homer and sixth consecutive with a hit.

“But this year isn’t last year” is a more delicate way to say that’s been one of the most massive disappointments for Seattle. It’s not for a lack of trying — Raleigh is notoriously one of the first players in the building. And it hasn’t come at the cost of defense — he was actually tracking to be better there compared to 2025 prior to his May IL stint. But Raleigh’s bat has been mostly absent. That’s the single biggest “feels different” factor.

Raleigh isn’t going to struggle this much all season long. He’s too talented. But it’s also too late for a 2025 version of the All-Star catcher to swoop in and save the team, so the Mariners will need more contributions from elsewhere.

Those contributions don’t mean as much if Raleigh doesn’t start improving at least a little bit, and soon. Asked what he sees, here’s what MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer told us Monday on Seattle Sports’ Bump and Stacy:

It seems like some of the struggles (are) when guys are coming into the zone against him. The challenges we saw in April where he was getting under fastballs up on his hands and up in the zone and not being able to really square them up and do damage on them, those are some of the things I think we saw over the homestand. You’re hoping to start to see a little more damage from him, adding a little more slug.

I don’t think this is going to be a full season of Cal hitting .167 with a .542 OPS. Now, does he get back over .200? It’ll take some time to get there given the sample size of the ABs he’s accumulated. It’ll take some time. But they just need him to be a solid contributor, navigate the pitching staff. And what you saw with Logan (Gilbert) in particular (Sunday) I thought was really encouraging. It’s no knock on (catchers) Johnny Pereda and Mitch Garver, but I just think the tandem of Cal and Logan, they really had it dialed in with their game plan.

One area the M’s have a leg up on last year

Speaking of Gilbert and the arms: this year’s pitching is better than last season. The 2025 M’s campaign saw every starter except for Luis Castillo land on the IL at some point, and that included Gilbert. Gilbert this year has allowed three hits and a single homer over his last three starts, and Emerson Hancock (who was filling in for Bryce Miller to start the season) is making an All-Star case, while Miller has a 1.58 ERA through seven games after starting the year on the IL.

Kirby and Castillo haven’t been as good, and the bullpen is missing a big piece with Matt Brash, but overall this group is fifth in ERA (3.62), which is second-best in the AL.

Of course there’s reason for optimism

The division is very, very bad. The American League is also bad — struggling so much that the Mariners’ plus-17 run differential is second-best to the Yankees’ plus-110, and one of only three positive run differentials in the AL.

But more than that, the M’s should be getting reinforcements. And a healthy version of this team is a very good team.

“A really underrated loss so far has been Branden Donovan,” Curtis Rogers said Monday while guest hostinging on Bump and Stacy. “They brought him in to be a leadoff hitter, he brings good contact, but you don’t have that right now.”

The DNA of the offense is always home run-reliant, but getting a healthy Donovan and a returning and healthy Randy Arozarena back is massive. Fans have already seen the impact a second-half Julio Rodríguez can have, and while he’s been in a bit of a rut lately, top prospect Colt Emerson has exceeded expectations.

If your hope was that Raleigh could repeat his 2025 season, then we’re long past panicking; but if you’re looking for reason to believe this team can still make an October push, you’ll certainly find it.

Seattle Mariners news and more

• Bob Stelton: J.P. Crawford again shows immense leadership
• Top prospect Kade Anderson extends long scoreless streak
• Seattle Mariners GM on impression Pereda made: ‘He’ll be back’

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