Mariners’ slow start has featured some bad luck

Things just haven’t been going the Seattle Mariners’ way all that often early this season.

It may be time for Seattle Mariners’ Cal Raleigh to make some tradeoffs

Wednesday night provided their latest misfortune.

After taking a four-run lead into the ninth inning, lockdown closer Andrés Muñoz had a rare meltdown and the Padres rallied for a walkoff 7-6 win. That came after Padres center fielder Jackson Merrill robbed Julio Rodríguez of a two-run homer earlier in the game, a play that proved to be critical in allowing San Diego’s comeback.

That’s just the way ball has bounced for Seattle in the early parts of the year.

It was the sixth one-run loss through the first 19 games of the season for the Mariners, who are 2-6 in one-run contests early on.

This also wasn’t the first time home-run robberies have bit the M’s this season. In a 1-0 loss to the Angels on April 4, right fielder Jo Adell robbed them of three homers during in one of the greatest defensive performance in league history.

During Thursday’s edition of Seattle Sports’ Bump and Stacy, co-host Stacy Rost and Curtis Rogers discussed how some bad luck has factored into struggles in close games and an underwhelming start for the 8-11 Mariners.

The hits aren’t falling

One stat that stuck out to Rogers was the Mariners’ .265 batting average on balls in play, which is tied for 25th in the league. For reference, last year’s team that finished ninth in runs scored had a .287 BABIP, which was tied for 20th.

For Rogers, the poor BABIP luck isn’t the only culprit for the offense coming up short in close games. It’s also the fact the Mariners aren’t doing damage with the hits that do fall. They’re 27th in the league with a .340 slugging percentage. Last year, they finished 10th at .420.

“The balls that are being put in play are being hit like right to guys. But also, they are not slugging at all and this is a team that has been built off of slugging percentage for a number of years now,” Rogers said. “Hitting the home run, hitting the long ball, that is how they have generated a ton of offense over the last few years, and you’re not getting that from Cal (Raleigh), you’re not getting that from Julio, you’re not getting that from (Josh) Naylor – your three biggest bats in the lineup. Heck, even Randy (Arozarena) only has one home run this season.

“… The slugging and the BABIP, to me, that is telling of why the Mariners have not been able to win a lot of these close games, because they’re just not getting enough punch offensively.”

Surprising letdown from pitching

The Mariners’ pitching staff has been among the best in baseball this season. It leads the league in fWAR (3.7), walks per nine innings (2.13) and FIP (3.05), and is third in ERA (3.24) and home runs allowed per nine innings (0.64).

However, some of their struggles in close games can be traced back to the pitching.

When ESPN’s Jesse Rogers joined Bump and Stacy last week, he pointed out that Mariners pitchers, despite having good raw numbers, were last in win probability added. They’ve since climbed to 21st, but Muñoz’s outing on Wednesday highlighted the issue the pitching has had in critical moments.

Mariners pitchers have allowed the highest batting average with runners in scoring position this season at .314. They also have the 11th-worst ERA (12.00), sixth-highest opponent batting average (.314) and 10th-highest opponent slugging percentage (.490) in high-leverage situations.

“That would kind of lend itself to the Mariners being unlucky in that they have all these great numbers as a whole as a pitching staff, but just in these individual moments they have not lived up to it so far,” Curtis Rogers said. “Maybe over the course of 162 (games) that evens out, but you do need to be better in those spots.”

Listen to Bump and Stacy weekdays from 10 a.m.-2 p.m. or find the podcast on the Seattle Sports app.

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