Salk: Why the Seahawks have made a bet they can’t lose

Three of the last four Seattle Seahawks offseasons have started with a bang. Each of them involved a major decision which led to franchise-altering change.

The Russell Wilson trade was an unmitigated success as Geno Smith flourished while Wilson torpedoed the Broncos (and his own legacy).

While it’s still too early to tell whether the team did the right thing in swapping Pete Carroll for Mike Macdonald at head coach, the early returns are overwhelmingly positive. The Carroll regime had simply run its course and Macdonald looks like an excellent young mind and a superb leader.

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Will the exits of Geno, DK Metcalf and offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb be as productive for the team? That obviously depends on how Sam Darnold, Cooper Kupp and Klint Kubiak perform in their stead. But when the dust settles early in 2026, I believe we will be talking about a third big offseason triumph. In fact, this might be a rare case where the team can’t lose.

The three scenarios

Before I explain, I should note that not everyone agrees.

ESPN’s Field Yates, who joined us Monday on Seattle Sports’ Brock and Salk, called the offseason transition from Geno to Darnold a “bet trade.” The Seahawks, he reasoned, are betting on moving to a quarterback that is younger, cheaper, and a better fit for their new offense. Oh, and they add a third-round pick in the process.

I tend to think Darnold will be all of those things, even if there is some risk associated with the move. But clearly it’s possible that he regresses from the outlier Pro Bowl season he had in Minnesota.

In fact, Yates said it was definitively “not a slam dunk.”

“I don’t think anybody is going to say, ‘It worked out fine.’ Either it was brilliant… or that was the dumbest thing they have ever done,” he said. “It’s a big bet on Darnold.”

But is it? After all, the way the deal is structured, the Seahawks can move on from their new quarterback after just one season.

The way I see it, there are three possible results of next season.

• 1. They get better than last year.
• 2. They are the same as last year.
• 3. They get worse than last year.

Scenario 1 would be great! If the Seahawks improve from their 10-win season, they will definitely be a playoff team with a very real shot at being an actual contender. It would mean that Darnold plays well and secures the remainder of the three years on his deal. It likely means that they have solidified the offensive line through some combination of coaching, development and the 2025 draft, and that the defense continues to improve, becoming an elite unit.

Every Seahawks fans would sign up for this in a heartbeat.

Scenario 2 is the worst case, and it’s still not that bad. My biggest fear – had the Seahawks brought back Geno and DK – was that they would not have had the resources to improve elsewhere. The team, in my opinion, was built too heavily on the outside without enough investment on the line of scrimmage, especially on offense.

While there is some opportunity cost associated with the possibility that they could have become a legitimate contender by keeping the band together for another season, that never seemed likely to me. Was Geno going to take another giant step forward? Would they have had the resources to get better in all the spots that were lacking? Were they going to be able to keep together their talented nucleus of young talent while paying their quarterback and wide receiver even more? I doubt it.

No one wants to be stuck in the middle in the NFL. If the Seahawks find themselves there once again, at least they have more flexibility to pivot again a year from now.

Scenario 3 would clearly be disappointing in the moment, but the truth is that it could put them in the best possible position for the future of the franchise. If Darnold reverts back to his Jets days, Kupp can’t stay on the field, or Kubiak’s system flat-out fails, the Seahawks will plummet to the bottom of the division. That won’t make for an enjoyable year in Seattle, but if it happens, the team will be just fine.

They could immediately move on from Darnold and Kupp without many salary repercussions. They would have a high draft pick in what should be a significantly better quarterback class than this year’s lackluster group. And, just as importantly, they will truly know that it’s time for a change. They will be out of the dreaded middle and in excellent position to build on the talented core.

Yes, the Seahawks have made a big bet. But it feels more like a quality hedge than a true risk. No, there’s no such thing as easy money in Vegas, but this plan gives them the flexibility to chart multiple paths forward.

I should add one caveat. None of this matters, none of this matters, NONE OF THIS MATTERS, if they don’t improve their offensive line. But you know that already. So while we wait for that, it should be easy to watch the team in 2025 knowing that whatever happens will likely be for the best.

Seattle Seahawks coverage

• Huard: An area where Seahawks OC can help Darnold improve
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• Seahawks announce two signings, including a WSU Cougars legend
• Huard on Seahawks Draft: What would be an A and an F at No. 18
• Rost: What you should expect from Seattle Seahawks’ Cooper Kupp

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