What would a Roki Sasaki signing mean for Mariners?

The Seattle Mariners will likely be connected to a handful of free-agent bats this offseason, but the most impactful player they have a realistic shot at signing could be one of the top starting pitchers on the market.

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Japanese star Roki Sasaki is expected to sign with an MLB team this offseason. The 23-year-old Sasaki has spent the past four years playing for the Chiba Lotte Marines of the Nippon Professional Baseball Organization in Japan. The Marines announced Saturday that they were starting the process of moving to Sasaki to the MLB.

The hard-throwing right-hander is thought to be the best pitcher in Japan and was a key member of Team Japan’s run to the World Baseball Classic title in 2023.

He is coming off a season where he went 10-5 with a 2.35 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 129 strikeouts over  111 innings pitched.

In his four seasons in the NPBO, Sasaki has compiled a 29-15 record with a 2.10 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 505 strikeouts over 394 2/3 innings pitched.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are the early favorite to sign Sasaki, but odds makers also like the Mariners’ chances. According to SportsBetting.ag, Seattle’s seven-to-one odds to land Sasaki are the fourth highest in the league, trailing the Dodgers, San Diego Padres and New York Mets.

During Wednesday’s edition of Wyman and Bob, producer Mike Lefko and Mariners play-by-play broadcaster Gary Hill Jr. discussed the prospects of a Sasaki signing, the pitches Seattle could make and how it could affect the team’s offseason plans.

Why many teams have a shot

The Dodgers being the favorite to land Sasaki isn’t a big surprise. Los Angeles is home to two-way Japanese phenom Shohei Ohtani and Japanese ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto, both of whom signed with the team last offseason. Plus, the Dodgers have some of the deepest pockets in all of baseball and just won the World Series.

The Japanese star power and overall success could certainly help, but the Dodgers won’t be able to out-spend teams to gain Sasaki’s services like they were able to with Ohtani and Yamamoto.

“That’s the intriguing part about this scenario is it’s just international funds, which is pretty even when you talk about what teams have,” Hill said. “So the Dodgers or the Mets can’t blow away everyone else when it comes to an offer, and that’s what makes this situation really unique, because he’s coming over early. He’s 23 and his stuff is ridiculous.”

Related: Japanese ace Roki Sasaki to become available to MLB teams this offseason

Per MLB rules, Sasaki is required to sign as an international amateur free agent due to being under 25 years old. So he won’t be getting a 12-year, $325 million contract like Yamamoto did entering the league as a 25-year-old. Instead Sasaki will sign a minor-league deal that will count against the team’s international bonus pool funds. He’ll also be under club control for the standard six seasons and be subject to the the league’s arbitration rules.

In 2016, a 23-year-old Ohtani received a $2,315,000 signing bonus from the Los Angeles Angels.

What exactly does that mean for the Mariners? Well, it will be best for them if Sasaki doesn’t sign until Jan. 15, 2025.

International bonus pool funds reset each calendar year and Seattle has one of the lowest totals left for 2024 at just $19,500. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have the most money left at $2,502,500.

However, the Mariners are one of eight teams with the highest total available in 2025 at $7,555,500, while the Dodgers are tied for the lowest total with $5,146,200.

The 2024 international signing period ends Dec. 15 and the 2025 period opens on Jan. 15.

The Marines have yet to post Sasaki. They must make the decision by Dec. 15. Teams will have a 45-day window to sign him afterwards.

“Even with five starters that you love, yeah, you make a pitch and try and make it happen it,” Hill said. “It’s a complete mystery what it’s going to take or what he’s interested in, but the Mariners, I think, have a real pitch to make.”

Two strong pitches for Seattle Mariners

With the money factor being relatively even for potential suitors, the key to signing Sasaki could come down to who can sell their organization best.

Hill thought of two big selling points the Mariners have. The first is the success the organization has had developing pitching.

“If you were a pitcher coming over and interested in being a better pitcher, there’s not many teams that can make a better case for the Mariners right now,” Hill said. “When you think about the smartest teams in baseball and when you have conversations with people outside of Seattle and talking about just baseball observers, a lot of the same teams are mentioned when it comes to the smartest teams when it comes to pitching. You hear about Cleveland all the time here, Tampa Bay all the time and the Mariners are now in that conversation given what they’ve done, especially with the rotation and how they’ve developed guys through their system.

“Keep in mind, (Bryce) Miller and (Bryan) Woo are two great examples, guys that we’re not top-10 picks overall (or) anything like that, and they steamed through the system and they’ve been super productive.”

The other pitch is the organization’s history of success with Japanese players.

“Seattle, of course, has had a long-standing tradition of Japanese players who have been All-Stars with the Mariners,” Hill said. “Not just Ichiro (Suzuki), but (Kazuhiro) Sasaki was a great pitcher in Seattle, (Hisashi) Iwakuma was a great pitcher in Seattle, (Shigetoshi) Hasegawa went to All-Star game, (Yusei) Kikuchi more recently. There’s a long-standing, wonderful tradition there.”

The impact of a Sasaki signing

One of the big debates surrounding the Mariners is whether or not they should trade from their stellar group of five starting pitchers to improve their offense.

The organization has said it prefers not to do so. President of Baseball Operations Jerry Dipoto called it “Plan Z” in his end-of-the-season press conference and general manager Justin Hollander reiterated that it was unlikely.

But signing a pitcher like Sasaki could make parting ways with an established starting pitcher an easier pill to swallow for Seattle’s front office.

“It would allow them (and) be easier to trade one of their established starters already, because I guess the way I think about it coming into the season when you look at the five starters they have, it is a position of strength,” Hill said. “And maybe you do end up having to trade one to get a bat that you want. We’ll see how see how it plays out during the season.”

With that being said, Hill pointed out that there are other factors in play when it comes to trading a starter.

“If you do trade one and then if a guy gets injured in the first month all of a sudden what was this premium strength takes a hit, and somebody will get injured during the course of the season, that happens in Major League Baseball,” Hill said. “Now you bring in Sasaki and you have a lot more depth. With pitchers coming over from Japan, too, you do want to be careful. They’ve been used to a different schedule in terms of pitching essentially once a week, so maybe it would be a six-man rotation. But that would be such a wonderful decision and problem to have to think about.”

Listen to the full conversation at this link or in the audio player near the top of this story. Tune in to Wyman and Bob weekdays from 2-6 p.m. or find the podcast on the Seattle Sports app.

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