Salk: The 3 things Mariners need to prioritize to fix their offense

There is no perfect way to build a ballclub. None. Not in a sport with as many changing variables as baseball. Not when we’ve seen any number of strategies succeed. And not when two teams try the same philosophy and one makes it work while the other fails in spectacular fashion.

The numbers behind the Seattle Mariners’ two-month slide

There are some things that should be obvious. You need to have a strong understanding of and reliance on modern analytics. Without it, you are just guessing. You should also have a strong scouting department in order to draft and acquire the best talent, making sure that what the numbers show fits what the eye sees.

You need to have an understanding of your home ballpark – they all factor differently and you’ll be playing half your games there. But you better not falter when you go out on the road, because that’s where you’ll play the other half.

Spending money helps, provided you spend it the right way and capitalize on the expensive players before they get put out to pasture. The Dodgers and Phillies have done well with this in recent years, but the Mets are here to prove money isn’t everything. The Rangers won the World Series last season after ponying up tons of cash for free agents, but it wouldn’t have been successful without the contributions of their young, drafted core. And even more importantly, it’s a good thing it worked. A year later, they are nowhere near a playoff spot and are using “load management” for Corey Seager, who will be making at least $31 million a year for the next SEVEN SEASONS.

The Pirates don’t spend money and it shows as an explanation for their years of futility. By contrast, the Rays make it work by slavishly sticking to their DiCaprio-esque model of trading good players for younger models before it’s time to pay them. The Padres haven’t seen the fruits of their spending nor the constant roster churn pay dividends. The Orioles rebuilt forever but now appear set to use that farm system to make an extended run at a title.

One thing that has not worked: whatever the Seattle Mariners have tried the last two seasons.

After stepping back in 2018, rebuilding the farm system to complement their major league roster, and then making the playoffs in 2022 possibly ahead of schedule, the Mariners have not figured out a path forward. In fact, they have been backing up like a cornerback giving ground to a speedy wide receiver. The problem is simple: they can’t figure out a consistent offensive formula.

I understand the challenge. The league is increasingly focused on pitching, and batters are at an all-time disadvantage. That problem is compounded by a ballpark that suppresses runs at a more significant rate than any other. How do you build an offense to withstand this park but also score on the road?

My answer would be to look for players who excel in three areas: on-base skills, speed, and power. In that order.

Look, T-Mobile Park is hard to hit in. That isn’t an opinion, it is now a documented fact. But why is it so tough? According to some I have talked to, it has less to do with the dimensions and more to do with the way line drives hang in the air. That takes away line-drive base hits and allows outfielders to play deeper, which allows them to cut off would-be doubles in the gaps. The result is that hitting is more difficult here than anywhere else.

The first part of my solution would be to make sure you focus on players who can get on base without relying on a high batting average to accomplish that. Walks aren’t affected by the marine layer, so find guys that know the strike zone.

But getting to first base doesn’t necessarily equate to scoring runs, especially if that is the only skill, so speed would be of the utmost importance. Take advantage of the new rules that shrunk the distance between first and second base. Get runners into scoring position early in innings and pressure the pitcher and the defense into making mistakes.

Finally, you still need power. It plays at home. It plays on the road. It wins you games when nothing else is working. You simply have to hit the ball out of the park.

I know what you’re thinking. Geez, Mike, I’m sure the Mariners would be the only team looking for players that get on base, run well, and hit home runs!

You’d be right. But looking for them is one thing. Actually committing to finding them is another.

The Mariners have done a really nice job of seeking those players out in their recent draft selection process. If there is one thread that connects most of their top prospects (Harry Ford, Colt Emerson, Tai Peete, Jonny Farmelo and Cole Young), it is their athleticism. But at the big league level, it’s a completely different story. If you want a philosophy to work, you have to stick to it and allow it to permeate your organization.

As we’ve already established, there is no guaranteed formula for success in this crazy, unpredictable game. But as the Mariners enter an offseason in which they need to critically evaluate every part of their offensive model, a guide to the type of player that might succeed here would be a good start.

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