What Mariners’ decision to let Servais go says about this season

After a disastrous two-month collapse that’s left their playoff hopes hanging by a thread, the fast-sinking Seattle Mariners relieved manager Scott Servais of his duties on Thursday.

Drayer: Looking at Scott Servais’ legacy, why Mariners let him go

Servais has been replaced by former Mariners catching great Dan Wilson, who general manager Jerry Dipoto said will be the permanent manager going forward.

Seattle held a 10-game lead atop the American League West on June 18, but has since fell all the way back to .500 with a dismal 20-33 stretch. Now 64-64, the Mariners are sitting 5.5 games behind the first-place Houston Astros in the AL West and 7.5 games out of the AL’s final wild-card spot.

Seattle’s pitching staff leads the majors in ERA, but the brilliance of its starting rotation has been undone by the team’s season-long struggles at the plate. The Mariners rank 27th in runs per game (3.93), dead-last in batting average (.216), 29th in slugging percentage (.365) and 28th in OPS (.666). Out of 128 games, they have been held to held to two or fewer runs 48 times (37.5%) and one or fewer runs 27 times (21.1%).

During his weekly appearance Thursday evening on Seattle Sports’ Wyman and Bob, MLB insider Jon Morosi discussed the franchise’s decision to move on from Servais.

“This has much more to do with the way the players have performed than Scott’s acumen as a baseball manager, or even Dan Wilson’s potential as a baseball manager,” Morosi said. “This has everything to do with the inability of this group of hitters to make consistent, meaningful, hard contact against pitches in the strike zone. Period. That’s really it.

“And once you’ve basically decided that you’ve seen that movie way too many times and that you just have to turn the page, it’s almost as though they got to the point where they said, ‘Listen, we’ve just got to turn the channel. I don’t care what’s on the next channel, I’m just not gonna watch this anymore.’ And that’s where they’ve arrived.”

Servais, who was in his ninth season at the helm, is the second-winningest manager in Mariners franchise history. He guided the club to 88-plus wins each of the past three seasons, including their breakthrough 2022 playoff run that ended a 21-year postseason drought.

But for Servais, the nail in the coffin was Seattle’s recent 1-8 road trip. The Mariners began the trip in a virtual tie with Houston atop the AL West, but ended the three-city swing Wednesday night on the outer fringes of playoff contention.

The problem was the same as it’s been all season: the offense. They scored three or fewer runs in seven of the nine games, including two or fewer runs in five of the games.

“The fans are, as you both know, very upset at the way the team has played,” Morosi said to hosts Dave Wyman and Bob Stelton. “It’s almost as though this was the move that had to happen in the minds of the decision-makers to just let the pressure out of the balloon a little bit and let people breathe a little and relax a little.”

Is it too late to make a difference in 2024?

Morosi said that even if Wilson were to end up being an upgrade at manager over Servais, it’s likely too late for it to make any real impact.

The Mariners’ playoff odds have plummeted all the way down to just 10.9%, according to Fangraphs. By contrast, their playoff odds were 56.6% just 11 days ago, prior to the road trip.

“If this was going to be the way the Mariners were going to play this … it would have made sense to make this move when there was a lot more runway left in this season,” Morosi said. “And I realize they’re reacting to things in real time and the picture is even more dire now than it was two weeks ago.

“But if the idea was to make a move that in some way changes the outlook for this season, I would think that this is a move that would have happened earlier. It just doesn’t seem like it’s gonna have that much of an effect on the season itself.”

Morosi pointed out that the Philadelphia Phillies reached the World Series in 2022 after making an in-season managerial change, replacing Joe Girardi with bench coach Rob Thomson. However, the Phillies made that move in early June – not the latter part of August.

“When Rob Thompson took over in Philly, there was tons of schedule left,” Morosi said. “And it’s just not the same chance. … Today’s news does not give them, from my standpoint, a much better chance at avoiding what is a catastrophe if they miss the playoffs.”

‘A colossal waste’

Why does Morosi consider it a catastrophe if Seattle misses the playoffs? Well, throughout the season, he and many others have repeatedly emphasized what a luxury the Mariners have in their young and talented starting rotation.

It’s truly an embarrassment of riches, with all five starters sporting ERAs of 3.51 or lower. The club’s 78 quality starts are a whopping 13 more than any other team in the league. The rotation’s combined 3.32 ERA is comfortably the best in the majors.

In addition, four of Seattle’s five starters are still on their first contracts, only one of which reached the arbitration stage before this season, making them relatively inexpensive for how talented they are. And all five starters are currently healthy – which in itself is somewhat of a luxury, given the rash of arm injuries plaguing the sport.

Added together, all those factors made this season a prime opportunity for the Mariners to contend for their first-ever trip to the World Series.

“This is just, when you get right down to the final analysis, a gigantic missed opportunity for this organization. Period. That’s what it is,” Morosi said. “You do not often get pitching (like this) – rarely. This is like a Halley’s comet of great pitching that has just shown up to this city, and they are wasting it.”

Furthermore, the Mariners had a golden opportunity to finally overtake the perennial powerhouse Astros in the AL West. Decimated by injuries, Houston stumbled out of the gates to a 12-24 start.

But ultimately, Seattle didn’t take advantage.

“The Astros this year were so vulnerable, especially through the first half of the season,” Morosi said. “And this just feels like a colossal waste.

“You like to see teams hit their intervals at the right moments and really maximize what they can do for their fans,” he added. “And it just feels like they have swung and missed at an absolute 3-1 fastball down the pipe – which is a very (appropriate) example for this team. … They’ve just missed a tremendous opportunity.”

Listen to the full conversation with Jon Morosi at this link or in the audio player near the top of this story. Tune in to Wyman and Bob weekdays from 2 to 6 p.m. or find the podcast on the Seattle Sports app.

More on the Seattle Mariners

• After Mariners change managers, Astros add to AL West lead
• Salk: Making sense of the Mariners’ Scott Servais era ending
• Scott Servais releases statement through Seattle Mariners after dismissal
• What change at manager could mean for rest of Seattle Mariners’ season
• The File: A closer look at new Seattle Mariners manager Dan Wilson

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