Lefko: What Seahawks’ early picks will tell us about their future

The Seattle Seahawks' decision at No. 18 overall will show how close they feel they are to contending for a Super Bowl.

Apr 23, 2025, 9:06 AM

Seattle Seahawks John Schneider 2025 NFL Draft Combine...

General manager John Schneider of the Seattle Seahawks speaks at the 2025 NFL combine. (Stacy Revere/Getty Images)

(Stacy Revere/Getty Images)

The Seattle Seahawks are not expecting to win a Super Bowl this upcoming season. That’s not something a team ever publicly admits, in fact the first page of the “How to work or play in the NFL” handbook starts with the sentence “please always use the phrase: ‘we’re looking forward to competing and we think this is a group that can win the Super Bowl’ when talking to the media.”

Insiders: The case for Tetairoa McMillan to Seattle Seahawks at No. 18

You certainly always hope and want to win a championship each season, but there are too many question marks on the offensive line, the quarterback and wide receiver positions underwent massive upheaval, and the defense could use a few more elite playmakers before the Seahawks would realistically be considered a Super Bowl contender. Even if they had kept Geno Smith and DK Metcalf, I felt like they were a couple of years away, but they didn’t listen to my three-year plan anyway. So, if we all know and can see the deficiencies on the roster, certainly they can as well.

However, while a Super Bowl might not be what awaits at the end of this season, what we will learn from the Seahawks’ first three picks (Nos. 18, 50, 52) is their own perception of how they view themselves when it comes to being a legitimate title contender.

What feels like one of the more unlikely scenarios at this point is the Seahawks actually taking an offensive lineman at No. 18. That doesn’t preclude (I’m going to borrow John Schneider’s word that had everyone abuzz when he talked about potentially taking a quarterback in the draft) them from trading down and taking one later in the first round, but based on what we have heard from Scheider this offseason, there will be better talent available at other positions compared to whichever offensive lineman is there when the Seahawks are on the clock at No. 18.

As well-known NFL Draft analyst William Shakespeare once wrote, “to draft an O-lineman or to not draft an O-lineman at No. 18.” So, on the basis of that question posed by the Draft Bard, here’s what I think those two paths mean for the Seahawks moving forward.

Draft an offensive lineman at No. 18

If the Seahawks do select an offensive lineman here, it would seem to signal that internally, this team believes they are much closer to being a Super Bowl contender than the outside perception of the team. We sometimes put too much faith and expectation into a team aligning with what we see in mock drafts, but there is a myriad of names around No. 18 that represent higher-impact players – from Jihaad Campbell, Kenneth Grant, Tyler Warren, Nick Emmanwori, Tetairoa McMillan, etc.

For the Seahawks to choose an offensive lineman here, if any of those names are on the board, means that they feel like their top-end talent is set at all of those positions. Defensive line, linebacker, secondary, pass-catching options … all good enough that the O-line is one of the final pieces of the puzzle, and that need is great enough to usurp the draft process the Seahawks have gone with of taking the best player available on their board.

So if they feel good about their starters at those other positions and take an offensive lineman in the first round, the next two picks need to be on defense. For as good as that unit was to end the season, there isn’t much depth at linebacker and in the secondary, especially with Riq Woolen and Coby Bryant entering the final year of their rookie contracts. It’s also part of the reason why I believe this second option is more likely for the Seahawks.

Don’t draft an offensive lineman at No. 18

That is painting a broad stroke since it applies to drafting any other position, but it’s a plan the Seahawks will utilize if they believe they are at least a year or two away from having a strong and deep enough roster to win a Super Bowl.

Regardless of position, the player selected at No. 18 will make the Seahawks immediately better, yes even at wide receiver. This team has a lot of good players, it doesn’t have a lot of great players on the roster. Outside of Leonard Williams and Devon Witherspoon, it’s hard to think of anyone else on the roster who would be in the top two players at their position in the NFL. So yes, you can always improve, even in areas that feel stable.

Tyrice Knight was an unexpected asset last year, but you know what’s even better: a starting LB group of Ernest Jones and Jihaad Campbell, with Knight as depth. We don’t have to do this exercise for every position, but it’s easy to envision the same thing at wide receiver or cornerback as well.

What that would mean for the offensive line is that the Seahawks must address the interior at No. 50 and probably No. 52 as well, which is absolutely fine. There are starters to be found in the second round.

The glaring difference between the Seahawks and the best teams in the NFL right now has been their inability to develop offensive linemen. The two best teams in football over the past few seasons, the Eagles and Chiefs, have really good offensive lines, despite not picking an offensive lineman in the first round in recent years. Adam Schefter recently listed the extensions the Eagles have signed with four starting linemen they have drafted, all of the multi-year extensions are with players selected in the second round or later.

In fact, here are the contracts both the Eagles and Chiefs have given to standout offensive linemen recently:

• Eagles C: Cam Jurgens – Four years, $68 million (No. 51 pick in 2022)
• Eagles LT: Jordan Mailata – Three years, $66 million (seventh round pick in 2018)
• Eagles LG: Landon Dickerson – Four years, $84 million (No. 37 pick in 2021)
• Chiefs C: Creed Humphrey – Four years, $76 million (No. 63 pick in 2021)
• Chiefs RG: Trey Smith – Franchise tag for $23.4 million, working on an extension (sixth round pick in 2021)

Part of that three-year plan piece I wrote about a few months ago outlined a team that has had success drafting a center in the second round in each of the last four drafts. For one reason or another, that player wasn’t good enough coming out of college to be a first-round pick but, in the cases of Jurgens or Humphrey, are now among the best in the NFL. That goes beyond draft evaluation, that’s coaching.

The Seahawks have certainly been deficient in the talent development aspect of their offensive line. They’re banking on that changing with the heavy emphasis this offseason on the cohesion and expertise of the offensive coaches brought in.

The payoff can be great, but coaching and development take time. It’s time the Seahawks have though, with Mike Macdonald still in the early stages of his first contract, a lot of cap space, and a roster that is much younger than it was at the start of the offseason, especially when it comes to where money is allocated.

Add the best player available in the draft at No. 18 and make that position even stronger, find two offensive linemen in the second round and over the next few seasons have that unit develop into one of the best in the league.