How much winning No. 1 seed would help Seahawks’ Super Bowl chances

For the first time in years, the Seattle Seahawks are in serious consideration for a No. 1 seed. But just how often does that correlate to a Super Bowl appearance?

Over the last decade, it won’t surprise you to learn the answer is: often.

The Seahawks’ paths to an NFC West title and No. 1 seed

Sure, every season they Seahawks have been in the hunt for homefield advantage or a playoff spot — after all, they’ve only had one losing season since 2011. But they haven’t been the No. 1 seed since 2014 and have won the division just twice since then (2016, 2020).

But right now, the Seahawks — who are also playing their best defense in years — own the best record in the NFC along with the Los Angeles Rams at 10-3. The Rams hold the No. 1 seed (and NFC West lead) by virtue of a head-to-head tiebreaker, but the Seahawks still have a chance to even things up with a Thursday night rematch on Dec. 18. To make things a bit sweeter, the Rams have the toughest opponent in Week 15 of the three contending NFC West teams (the Detroit Lions).

Here’s how No. 1 seeds have fared in the playoffs dating back to 2015. Super bowl appearances are in bold and winners italicized bold.

• 2024: Detroit Lions (NFC) / Kansas City Chiefs (AFC)

Result: Kansas City loses Super Bowl to No. 2 seed Philadelphia Eagles.

• 2023: San Francisco 49ers (NFC) / Baltimore Ravens (AFC)

Result: 49ers lose Super Bowl to No. 3 seed Kansas City.

• 2022: Kansas City Chiefs (AFC) / Philadelphia Eagles (NFC)

Result: Super Bowl meeting of two No. 1 seeds. Winner: Chiefs.

• 2021: Green Bay Packers (NFC) / Tennessee Titans (AFC)

Result: No. 4 seed Rams beat No. 4 seed Bengals.

• 2020: Green Bay Packers (NFC) / Kansas City Chiefs (AFC)

Result: Kansas City loses Super Bowl to wild card Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

• 2019: San Francisco 49ers (NFC) / Baltimore Ravens (AFC)

Result: 49ers lose Super Bowl to No. 2 seed Kansas City.

• 2018: New Orleans Saints (NFC) / Kansas City Chiefs (AFC)

Result: No. 2 seed New England beat No. 2 seed Rams.

• 2017: Philadelphia Eagles (NFC) / New England Patriots (AFC)

Result: Meeting of two No. 1 seeds. Winner: Eagles.

• 2016: Dallas Cowboys (NFC) / New England Patriots (AFC)

Result: Patriots beat No. 2 seed Atlanta Falcons.

• 2015: Carolina Panthers (NFC) / Denver Broncos (AFC)

Result: Meeting of two No. 1 seeds. Winner: Broncos.

Easy takeaways here. A No. 1 seed has appeared in the Super Bowl in eight of the last 10 Super Bowls. Four of those have gone on to win a Super Bowl. Coincidentally, three of those wins have been by AFC teams. Dating back to the 2013 Seahawks’ Super Bowl win, the 2017 Philadelphia Eagles are the only No. 1 seed NFC team to win a Super Bowl.

Does that mean an NFC team getting the No. 1 seed doesn’t help? What? No, absolutely not, please don’t come to that conclusion. Being a division winner has an overwhelmingly strong positive correlation with getting to, and winning, a Super Bowl. And consider that the 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers — who had Tom Brady and one of the best defensive lines in football — were the sole wild card team represented here.

Guess that makes next Thursday pretty important, huh?

More on the Seattle Seahawks

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• Seahawks’ Emmanwori making Defensive Rookie of the Year case
• Seahawks Injury Update: Sundell expected to return this week
• Status Report: What’s working, what needs help for 10-3 Seahawks
• What the Seattle Seahawks are doing is ‘exceedingly rare’ in NFL

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