The Seahawks’ paths to an NFC West title and No. 1 seed

The race for the NFC West crown is also shaping up to be a race for the NFC’s No. 1 seed.

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The NFC’s best records currently belong to the Los Angeles Rams (10-3) and the Seattle Seahawks (10-3), who are locked in a first-place tie atop the NFC West. Lurking right behind them is the division rival San Francisco 49ers (9-4), giving the NFC West three of the conference’s top five teams.

According to The Athletic’s NFL Playoff Simulator, there’s an 85% chance that the NFC’s No. 1 seed will come from that NFC West trio of the Rams (48%), Seahawks (28%) or 49ers (9%). Also in the mix are a pair of NFC North rivals in the 9-3-1 Green Bay Packers (10%) and the 9-4 Chicago Bears (4%).

NFL standings

The No. 1 seed comes with two major advantages: the conference’s lone first-round bye and home-field advantage through the NFC playoffs.

And keep in mind, the NFL’s playoff format awards the conference’s top four seeds to the four division winners, so the best a non-division winner can be seeded is No. 5.

In other words, the NFC West champion might only need to win two home playoff games to reach the Super Bowl, while the division’s second-place and third-place teams would probably have to string together three consecutive road playoff victories.

Simply put, there’s an enormous amount riding on this razor-tight, three-team NFC West race.

So, with four weeks left in the regular season, what will it take for Seattle to capture the division crown?

First, a quick refresher: The Seahawks lost to the 49ers 17-13 in Week 1 and 21-19 to the Rams in Week 11. But the Hawks will get another shot at both teams down the stretch, as they host L.A. in a massive Week 16 rematch and travel to face San Francisco in their Week 18 finale.

Here’s the remaining schedule for each of the three NFC West contenders:

• Rams: vs. Lions (8-5), at Seahawks (10-3), at Falcons (4-9), vs. Cardinals (3-10)

• Seahawks: vs. Colts (8-5), vs. Rams (10-3), at Panthers (7-6), at 49ers (9-4)

• 49ers: vs. Titans (2-11), at Colts (8-5), vs. Bears (9-4), vs. Seahawks (10-3)

The Seahawks caught a break in facing a reeling Colts team that just lost quarterback Daniel Jones to a season-ending injury, but they still have the toughest remaining schedule of the NFC West trio.

Let’s take a look at the various scenarios for how the Seahawks could fare over these final four games, and what each scenario would mean for their chances of claiming the NFC West title and the No. 1 seed. All odds are via The Athletic’s NFL Playoff Simulator.

If Seahawks win out and finish 14-3

• NFC West title odds: 100%
• No. 1 seed odds: 100%

This one is simple. If the Seahawks win out, they would capture both the NFC West title and the NFC’s No. 1 seed. It would be their first division title since 2020 and their first No. 1 seed since their back-to-back Super Bowl runs in 2013 and 2014.

If Seahawks finish 13-4 (with loss to Rams)

• NFC West title odds: 13%
• No. 1 seed odds: 11%

This scenario underscores the sheer magnitude of next week’s rematch against the Rams. Even if the Seahawks win each of their other three remaining games, it’s highly unlikely they’d be able to win the NFC West without beating L.A.

If Seahawks finish 13-4 (with loss to 49ers)

• NFC West title odds: 37%
• No. 1 seed odds: 30%

In addition to beating the Rams, there’s a good chance the Seahawks will also need to beat the 49ers in Week 18 to claim the NFC West crown. A second loss to the 49ers would put Seattle on the wrong end of virtually any potential two-team or three-team NFC West tiebreaker situation.

If Seahawks finish 13-4 (with loss to Panthers)

• NFC West title odds: 54%
• No. 1 seed odds: 44%

If the Seahawks beat both the Rams and 49ers, there’s roughly a coin-flip chance they could still win the division with a slip-up against either the Panthers or Colts.

If Seahawks finish 13-4 (with loss to Colts)

• NFC West title odds: 54%
• No. 1 seed odds: 47%

Same as above. If the Seahawks suffer a stunning upset loss to the reeling Colts this weekend and then rebound to win each of their final three games, they’d have a roughly coin-flip chance to come away with the division title.

If Seahawks finish 12-5 or worse

Barring several upset losses by the Rams and 49ers, the Seahawks will need at least 13 wins to claim the NFC West crown. A 12-5 mark almost certainly wouldn’t be enough.

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