Stacy Rost: Wait – why are Seahawks longshots to win NFC West?

May 2, 2025, 11:17 AM | Updated: 2:23 pm

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After they finished the 2024 regular season with a 10-7 record and lost out on first place in the NFC West thanks to a measly fifth tiebreaker, the Seattle Seahawks are… longshots to win the division.

Wait, what?

Bump: A position the Seahawks still need to address

That’s right: Some sportsbooks have them with the longest odds, and while others give them the nod over Arizona, they’ve not been higher than third place. Their over/under on win total is 7.5, one Vegas also favors the Seahawks to surpass (so, that’s good news at least).

A last- or second-to-last place finish after a 10-win season? This has to be some anti-Seahawks hate, right? East coast bias? Fundamental lack of football IQ?

Well, hang on. Oddsmakers do get it wrong, most recently and famously with Seattle’s 5.5-win prediction in 2022 turning into a trip to the playoffs. But while the Seahawks have typically outperformed lower win-total projections, they’ve also played themselves out of the Super Bowl favorites conversation.

The Seahawks have had a winning season in nine of the past 10 years. That’s rare in the NFL. Compare that to Arizona, which has had a winning season in just two of the past 10 years, and you’ll find why Seattle has typically been favored no lower than third.

On the other hand, for all their fairly consistent winning, the Seahawks haven’t been to an NFC Championship game since the 2014 season. All three other teams in the NFC West have made it that far over that time. Since the Seahawks’ loss in Super Bowl XLIX, two teams in Seattle’s division have been to the Super Bowl a combined four times (Rams and 49ers), with one win (Rams over the Bengals in Super Bowl LVI). The Seahawks during that same timeframe have six playoff appearances and three playoff wins, the latter all in the wild card round.

But that’s not the only reason the Seahawks aren’t favored. You, the person reading this now – presumably a Seahawks fan – understand that Geno Smith and DK Metcalf initiated their trade requests, and that the defense took massive steps forward as the season progressed. The average, more casual sports fan outside of Seattle might not.

They don’t see a top five defense sprinkled with stars like Philly. They don’t see a franchise quarterback, or All-Pro receivers, or any other marker that would give a team like Cincinnati, one that missed the playoffs, more credit. They just see a massive question mark on offense: why replace DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett with Cooper Kupp? Why put Sam Darnold behind a bad offensive line? How can your identity be a tough-nosed team when you’re near the bottom of the league in rushing yards per game?

Those odds won’t reflect potential improvements with the existing pieces on the offensive line, nor a potential boost from a rookie guard. They won’t reflect potential changes in playcalling from a new OC, nor the opportunity for a full season from linebacker Ernest Jones.

For their part, the Seahawks are trying to prove those oddsmakers wrong — something they’ve at least done more often than not. Will Vegas miss again this year?

• 2024 Seahawks

Second-longest odds to win the NFC West, over/under 7.5 wins

Result: 10-7, tied in record with Rams but a second-place finish that came down to a fifth tiebreaker

• 2023 Seahawks

Second-shortest odds to win NFC West behind only the 49ers, over/under 8.5 wins

Result: 9-8, third-place NFC West

• 2022 Seahawks

Longest odds to win NFC West (LAR, ARZ, SF, SEA), over/under 5.5 wins

Result: 9-8, second-place NFC West