The Ken Walker contract situation: What you need to know

The Seatte Seahawks don’t get to the Super Bowl without the run game looking like it did over the season’s final month. And they don’t win it without Kenneth Walker III.

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More than just the Super Bowl MVP, Walker was central to Seattle’s fight through the playoffs. An explosive 55-yard touchdown (and 100 yards on the day) in a pivotal Thursday night win over the Rams, and 133 yards from scrimmage in a battle for the NFC’s top seed in Week 18.

But most impressive was his stretch of play when Seattle needed him most. After losing Zach Charbonnet to an ACL tear in the NFC Divisional Round, the Seahawks needed his running mate who’d averaged between 12-14 carries per game in December to shoulder the load. He gave the Seahawks 313 yards and four touchdowns in three playoff games, including a high of 135 yards in the one that mattered most.

Answering the call with that performance deserves credit, and Walker’s version will come in the form of competitive offers in free agency. But what are the odds one of those offers outbids Seattle’s own? And what does it mean for a running back room that’s still waiting on a return from another starter?

What’s tricky

Ken Walker’s role in the playoffs isn’t what his regular season role looked like.

Walker is worth more than he was getting on a rookie deal. He’s earned his payday. A hometown discount is great for fans, but it’s an unfair ask of an employee at the peak of his life’s earning potential. So, let’s get that out of the way.

Walker’s role in Seattle isn’t that of a premiere workhorse back. He was part of an effective committee approach to the season, and it’s one that may very well have kept Walker healthy enough to bulldoze through January. That’s the role Seattle will want to pay for. But will another team desperate for a running back ffer a top salary?

“I know he’s coming off the Super Bowl MVP and that’s obviously a huge feather in his cap,” ESPN’s Dan Graziano told us Wednesday on Bump and Stacy. “But you look at the year, he’s thrived in this two-back setup with Charbonnet, and I think if you’re Seattle you’re trying to sell him on like, hey, we’ve got something special here, we were able to keep you healthy, etc. So, I think they’ll try to get a deal done with him, but if not, he goes onto the market with those other backs and it depends on whose eye he ends up being the apple of.”

What’s the cost?

Spotrac has Ken Walker’s market value at $9 million AAV, but that’s not where Graziano is looking.

“I start as a baseline with what Kyren Williams got from the Rams last year, about $11 million a year for three years. I think that’s probably where (this year’s running back free agents) will try and top that and get as close as possible to the $14 million (the Colts’) Jonathan Taylor makes.”

The risk

Maybe it’s too rich for Seattle. And that’s fine; they’ve got a young team with plenty of weapons on defense that can make up for a few offensive question marks.

But for all the knocks on Walker’s availability or a potential price tag, he’s a talented and explosive weapon. And moving on can also come at a cost.

Perhaps Seattle taps into young talent and that proves to be enough. But this is also a franchise that’s seen stretches of lackluster play out of the backfield. After Marshawn Lynch’s final 1,000-yard season in 2014, Seattle didn’t see another 1,000-yard rusher until Chris Carson in 2018. That included a 2017 where just one rushing touchdown came from a running back. Sometimes a gamble pays off, but other times you’re reminded that cheaper options are cheaper for a reason.

The replacements

There are some great halfbacks in free agency who could replace a departed Walker (and no, leaning only on Charbonnet and Kenny McIntosh, two in-house options coming back from ACL tears, probably isn’t Seattle’s Plan A).

Rico Dowdle is a popular name here. He doesn’t have Walker’s explosiveness (PFF ranks him 16th in 10+ yard runs) but he’s coming off consecutive 1,000-yard seasons with Dallas and Carolina, which is impressive considering he didn’t start until Week 5 last year. He’s also cheaper than Walker; Spotrac has his market value under $7 million AAV. Another option is Travis Etienne, a year younger with a similar market value and 1,000-plus yards in three of four seasons in Jacksonville.

Seattle Seahawks offseason coverage

• Four things we learned from new Seahawks OC Brian Fleury
• What Seahawks GM Schneider said about OC hiring process
• Why Macdonald landed on Fleury as Seahawks’ new OC
• An expert’s view: What to know as Seahawks go up for sale
• Report: Seattle Seahawks pick a new run game coordinator

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