Danny O’Neil’s Week-9 NFL Picks: Clearing up the NFC power structure

When the Seahawks return to work on Monday, there will be some clarity in the NFC power structure. On the one hand, there’s a battle between division leaders Green Bay (6-1) and Carolina (7-0) to see who has the inside track on the conference’s No. 1 seed.

Then there’s a game between Minnesota (4-2) and St. Louis (4-3), who have two of the best records among NFC teams not currently leading their division. In fact, Atlanta (6-2) is the only other NFC team with a winning record that’s not leading its division.

Here’s a look at what’s on tap in Week 9:

Cleveland at Cincinnati

One team from Ohio closes. Over its past four games, Cincinnati has outscored opponents 37-13 in the fourth quarter. The other team from Ohio collapses. The Browns jumped out to a 20-7 lead against Arizona last week before allowing 27 unanswered points. Over the past three games, Cleveland has given up almost twice as many second-half points (51) as first-half points (30). Bengals have won six of the past nine meetings in the series. Bengals are 7-0 for the first time ever. I think you see where this one is going.

Pick: Bengals 24, Browns 16

Green Bay at Carolina

This looks like a battle between Carolina’s physical defense and the Packers’ precision offense, right? Except the Panthers are scoring more points (27.3) than the Packers (24.9) while Green Bay is giving up fewer points (18.6) than Carolina (19.4). But while Carolina is 7-0 for the first time in franchise history, that was a very gassed Panthers team that won in overtime against Indianapolis. Expect a reckoning from the Packers this weekend.

Pick: Packers 27, Panthers 20

Washington at New England

Shockingly, Washington has become one of the most boring teams in the league this year despite: a) having the guy who may have succeeded Donald Sterling as the most reviled sports owner in America; b) the fact their most famous player is moored to the bench. Yet, here they are at 3-4, hip deep in the second-worst division in the league. Well, Bill Belichick is here to joylessly take care of that. You like that, Kirk Cousins? I don’t think you will.

Pick: Patriots 22, Epithets 13

Tennessee at New Orleans

The Titans fired Ken Whisenhunt, which is weird. The guy they trusted to coach their new franchise quarterback over the offseason got five games with Marcus Mariotta. Meanwhile, the Saints have won three in a row despite the fact they have yet to hold an opponent to fewer than 20 points. Tennessee is a threat to break that string. The Titans have scored as many as 20 points only twice this season.

Pick: Saints 34, Titans 13

Miami at Buffalo

Why has this Bills defense allowed more than 30 points in three different games this season? Rex Ryan got an answer for that? Because that defense – which allowed the fourth-fewest yards in the league – is decidedly mediocre. In fact, they might be worse. The Bills had the most sacks per pass attempt of opponents last season. They’ve now logged the third-fewest. But since Miami can’t fire Joe Philbin again to give its team a shot in the arm, the Bills get the best of this meeting just like they have recently, winning four of the past five against Miami.

Pick: Bills 20, Dolphins 13

St. Louis at Minnesota

The guy who was the most prolific running back in the league – Adrian Peterson – faces the guy who is the most prolific running back in the league: Todd Gurley. After sitting out the first three games as he recovered from a knee injury, all Gurley has done is become the first rookie in NFL history to rush for more than 125 yards in each of his first four starts. Winner gets the inside track on the wild card.

Pick: Rams 23, Vikings 20

Jacksonville at New York Jets

You could say the Jets are hanging onto their playoff ambitions by a finger, but it’s actually Ryan Fitzpatrick’s thumb that is the question. Injured in last week’s game, the Jets were sunk with Geno Smith. Fitzpatrick is back this week, but whether he stays healthy is the key to success.

Pick: Jags 17, Jets 12

Oakland at Pittsburgh

The Raiders have won four of their last five meetings with the Steelers and – shockingly – have the better record coming into the game. Oakland has made undeniable progress this season, going from being “not awful” to “not bad” to “really competitive.” Now, at 4-3, we’re at the point of asking whether Oakland is truly good. Nope. Not yet.

Pick: Steelers 27, Raiders 17

New York Giants at Tampa Bay

The Bucs might be the most confusing team in the league. They’re 2-1 in what might be the toughest division in the league, having beaten the Falcons and the Saints on the road no less, yet they’re 0-2 against the God-awful AFC South with losses to the Titans and the Texans. Meanwhile, the Giants just scored 49 points and lost because of a defense that has held only one opponent to fewer than 20 points this season.

Pick: Bucs 31, Giants 30

Atlanta at San Francisco

The 49ers have commenced the precipitous decline the Falcons experienced following their loss to San Francisco in the NFC Championship Game. The difference? Even as Atlanta’s standing plummeted, the Falcons knew they had their quarterback in Matt Ryan. In San Francisco? Desperation, thy name is Blaine Gabbert. But don’t look now, but the Falcons look vulnerable. They had to hold on – desperately – to beat a bad Tennessee team 10-7 two weeks ago and then lost at home to Tampa Bay last week.

Pick: Falcons 17, 49ers 13

Denver at Indianapolis

It’s fair to ask if the Colts made the right decision in choosing Andrew Luck and letting Peyton Manning walk, right? Because four years in, the Broncos have three playoff berths, a Super Bowl appearance and as bad as Manning has been this season, he’s not played worse than Luck has he?

Pick: Broncos 22, Colts 16

Philadelphia at Dallas

Man, the Cowboys should be cooked. They won their opener in New York after the Giants absolutely butchered the clock in the final 2 minutes. They lost receiver Dez Bryant and quarterback Tony Romo in back-to-back weeks and have lost five in a row. Yet Dallas has only one more loss than the division-leading Giants and the Cowboys were more than just competitive against Seattle. I think the Cowboys are going to win the NFC East.

Pick: Cowboys 18, Eagles 13

Chicago at San Diego

All the power the commissioner has accumulated in the NFL and he can’t move this matchup out of the Monday night spotlight? C’mon, Roger. Throw us a freaking bone here. About the only thing interesting about this matchup is whether San Diego’s mouthy quarterback (Philip Rivers) will start yelling at Chicago’s pouty quarterback (Jay Cutler). We’ve seen Goodell will try to suspend one of his league’s biggest stars without much in the way of due process, but darned if he’ll raise a pinky from subjecting the entire nation to this eyesore.

Pick: Chargers 20, Bears 17 (but let’s be clear, no one wins by watching this game)

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