Where Mariners’ playoff odds stand after series loss to Tigers

The time the Seattle Mariners have left to turn their season around is only getting shorter after another series loss.

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After evening their three-game set with Detroit on Wednesday night, the Mariners came out with a dud Thursday, falling in an 11-0 drubbing that saw them go down three runs before their first turn at the plate.

With the loss, the Mariners fell to 56-60 on the season and missed out on a chance to win consecutive series for the first time since the start of July.

Below is a look at where the Mariners stand in races for the American League West title and AL wild-card berths following Thursday’s defeat.

AL West race

The AL West-leading Astros were idle Thursday, meaning Seattle had a chance to make up one-half game in the standings. Instead, it fell a half game further behind and now sits three back of first place with 46 games to go.

The Mariners are in third place in the division but currently hold the second best of odds winning it at 32.7%, per FanGraphs. The Astros have the highest odds at 40.4% and the Rangers are third at 27%.

Seattle has five games remaining with Houston and three with Texas. It has already clinched the tiebreaker with the Astros via winning the season series. However, it has also lost the season series and tiebreaker to the Rangers.

Wild-card race

The M’s also missed out on a chance to make up one-half game on the final AL wild-card berth with Texas idle on Thursday. Seattle is now 1 1/2 games back of the Rangers. Boston, which hold the second wild card berth, faces the Chicago White Sox on Thursday night with a chance to move eight games in front of the Mariners.

Four teams (Cleveland, Minnesota, Baltimore and Detroit) sit between the Mariners and Rangers in the wild-card standings. The Tigers’ win on Thursday moved them one-half game in front of Seattle.

FanGraphs lists the Mariners’ odds of reaching the playoffs via the wild card at 15.6%. Those are the fourth-best odds of teams that do not currently hold a division lead, trailing the Yankees, Red Sox and the Rangers (the three teams currently holding wild-card berths).

Seattle’s overall playoff odds sit at 48.2%, the sixth-best odds in the AL.

Schedule watch

When looking at the rest of the schedule, the Mariners are in a favorable spot with the 27th-easiest remaining schedule with an opponents’ winning percentage of .485, per Tankathon. However, the Astros (28th) and the Rangers (29th) have slightly easier remaining slates.

The other caveat to the Mariners’ schedule is all of their easiest remaining series but one take place in September following an August gauntlet that begins Friday against the AL-leading Tampa Bay Rays.

From Friday through Sept. 2, the M’s will face the Rays, Yankees, Astros, Brewers, Cubs, Phillies, Blue Jays and Red Sox in that order. The Blue Jays are the only team on that list with a record below .500. The remaining seven teams all currently hold playoff spots, including the division-leading Rays, Astros and Brewers.

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