What’s at stake in Mariners’ series vs AL West-leading Rangers

The American League West is up for grabs and the most important series to date for the upper hand in the division starts Friday when the Seattle Mariners head to Texas to take on the Rangers in a four-game series at Globe Life Field.

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The AL West rivals meet for the penultimate series of their season series as the Rangers (51-51 record) hold a one-half game lead over the Mariners (51-52) for first place in the division.

Below is a look at the matchup, including what’s at stake during the series.

Standings watch

As mentioned above, the Rangers hold first place in the AL West by a slim margin. However, the Mariners are still the favorites to win the division.

According to FanGraphs, the Mariners have a 53.5% chance to win the division. The Rangers’ odds are 34%. Seattle also holds an advantage in overall playoff odds at 68.8% compared to 49.6% for Texas.

It will be worth checking in Monday night to see how much the upcoming series impacts those odds.

In addition to the race for the division, both teams are in the mix for the wild-card chase. The M’s are two games back of the Boston Red Sox for the third wild-card berth and 2 1/2 games behind the Cleveland Guardians for the second wild-card spot, meaning Texas would 1 1/2 games back of Boston and two back of Cleveland. If the Mariners-Rangers series ends in a split, there is an outside chance Seattle could be tied with Boston for the third wild-card berth by Monday night.

Tiebreaker ramifications

The Mariners dominated the Rangers the past two seasons, winning 10 of their 13 meetings each year. But it’s Texas that has the upper hand in the season series at this point with a 4-2 record through two series. The Rangers swept the Mariners in Texas in early April, and the M’s took two of three in Seattle less than two weeks later.

With seven games remaining in the season series, Texas can clinch the tiebreaker by taking three of four games in the upcoming four-game set. The Mariners need to win at least two to keep their hopes of taking the tiebreaker alive, but if they’re only able to come away with a split, they’d then have to sweep the three-game series between the teams in Seattle during September.

Don’t expect a lot of runs

A trip to Arlington, Texas, used to mean the Mariners were likely in for a series where a lot runs would be scored. But Globe Life Field, which opened in 2020, is the closest ballpark to rivaling T-Mobile Park when it comes to pitcher friendly environments.

Globe Life Field is the league’s second-toughest park to hit in with a park factor score of 93 (100 is average), according to Statcast. T-Mobile Park remains as the most pitcher friendly stadium with a park factor score of 91. No other park has a score lower than 97.

Add in the fact the Mariners and Rangers both rank bottom 10 in MLB in runs scored, and it’s recipe for a low-scoring series and some tight games.

Seattle holds the clear pitching advantage. It has allowed the least homers in the league (100) and has the fifth-best ERA as a staff (3.59). Texas is 22nd (127 homers allowed) and 21st (4.34 ERA) in those categories, respectively.

However, the Rangers have the advantage when it comes to hitting. Despite scoring the ninth-least runs in MLB (427), they’re around the middle of the pack in most offensive categories. Meanwhile, the M’s are last in batting average (.229) and slugging percentage (.377) and second to last in runs scored (415).

In what appears to be a pretty evenly matched series like this, it could come down to a clutch hit or two in big moments. That could be bad news for the Mariners. They’re 29th in batting average with runners in scoring position (.220). The Rangers are sixth (.267).

Key injuries

The Mariners are still without utility man Brendan Donovan, who has been out since mid-May with a left groin muscle strain, as well as outfielder/designated hitter Rob Refsnyder and relievers Matt Brash, Cooper Criswell and Carlos Vargas.

In addition to those injuries, third baseman J.P. Crawford missed all three games of Seattle’s series against Cincinnati earlier this week with a wrist injury, though he has avoided an IL stint to this point.

The Rangers are dealing with a slew of injuries. Their lengthy injured list includes five-time All-Star shortstop Corey Seager, catchers Kyle Higashiosaka and Danny Jansen, starting pitchers Jack Leiter and Jordan Montgomery, and relievers Chris Martin and Robert Garcia, among others.

Third baseman Josh Jung will be another name to monitor for Texas. He left Tuesday’s game against the White Sox with left calf tightness and missed the series finale Wednesday. He’s been the Rangers best hitter this year with a .294 average, .802 OPS, 127 wRC+, nine homers and 23 doubles.

Pitching probables

• Friday: Right-hander Bryce Miller (4-4 record, 2.27 ERA) vs. left-hander Mackenzie Gore (6-8, 4.80),

• Saturday: Right-hander Bryan Woo (7-6, 4.16) vs right-hander Nathan Eovaldi (9-8, 4.21)

• Sunday: Right-hander Logan Gilbert (8-6, 3.38) vs right-hander Jacob deGrom (7-6, 3.76)

• Monday: Right-hander George Kirby (8-8, 3.57) vs right-hander Kumar Rocker (3-8, 4.13)

The Mariners and Rangers begin their four-game series Friday at 5:05 p.m. Radio coverage on Seattle Sports 710 AM and the Seattle Sports app begins with the pregame show at 4 p.m.

Seattle Mariners news and more

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• Mariners sign first-round pick Ace Reese; two draftees remain unsigned

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