These second-half series will be big for Mariners’ tiebreakers

This season has presented the Seattle Mariners a chance to run away with the American League West early, but they haven’t been able to take advantage.

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With expectations as high as they had ever been for the franchise entering this year, the M’s entered the All-Star break with a disappointing 48-49 record and 1 1/2 games back of the first-place Texas Rangers in a weak AL West.

However, it’s a record that was just good enough to put the Mariners in a playoff spot if the season ended today as they’re tied with the Minnesota Twins for the AL’s third and final wild-card berth.

With a starting pitching staff that has returned closer to its stellar 2024 form, the Mariners still have a realistic shot at running away with their division over the final 2 1/2 months of the campaign. They just need their offense to start producing consistently, a task that’s easier said that done.

But if they can’t, tiebreakers could come in to play to determine their playoff fate.

MLB Standings

Here’s a look at some of the most important series for the M’s in the second half in terms of potential tiebreakers.

• At Texas (July 24-26)

The first truly big series for the Mariners after the All-Star break is next weekend when they head to Globe Life Field for a four-game set against the Rangers. Texas currently holds a 4-2 advantage in the season series with seven games left to play.

The clubs meet again for three games at T-Mobile Park in September, but the upcoming series figures to be a bit more important for a few of reasons.

If Texas wins at least three games, it wins the season series. But if Seattle could pull out a series win, it could be what regains the AL West lead, or perhaps extend it. It also comes just before the Aug. 3 trade deadline, so whichever way the series goes could have some sway on the direction of the team’s deadline plans.

• Vs Minnesota (July 31-Aug. 2)

The Mariners face the team they’re tied with for the final AL wild-card berth for three games in the final series before the trade deadline. They’re 2-1 against Minnesota this year and need two wins to take the tiebreaker and one to tie.

This series also kicks off a tough nine-game home stand that features games against three AL playoff contenders.

• Vs Detroit (Aug. 4-6)

Seattle faces the team it vanquished in the 2025 AL Division Series in its first series after the trade deadline needing a sweep to win the season series and two wins to salvage a tie. The Tigers are currently 3 1/2 games behind the Mariners in the wild-card chase.

Detroit won nine of its final 12 games before the All-Star break to get itself back in contention, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it will be buyers at the trade deadline. What the Tigers decide to do with two-time AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal, the potential best player available in trades, will greatly impact the importance of the tiebreaker.

• At Toronto (Aug. 28-30)

For as disappointing as the Mariners’ first half was, it was even more so for the defending AL champion Blue Jays, who are last in the AL East and 2 1/2 games behind the M’s in the wild-card standings.

The Mariners got a little revenge on the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last season when they took two of three game in Seattle earlier this month. But the 2025 AL finalists still have one more series, and it could be a big one for both.

The Mariners need two wins to take the season series and one to tie.

• At Boston (Aug. 31-Sept. 2)

When the Mariners lost two of three games to Boston in June, it didn’t look like it would matter much in terms of tiebreakers for the postseason. But the Red Sox won their final nine games before the All-Star break and are right back in the thick of the wild-card chase only one-half game behind Seattle.

The Mariners need a sweep to win the season series and two wins to tie it. They’ll have to do it at a ballpark they’ve won only one series out of 10 in since 2015. The last time the M’s swept the Red Sox at Fenway Park was 2014.

Other notable tiebreakers

Seattle won its season series against the Houston Astros by taking seven of the first eight meetings between the teams. Houston is 1 1/2 games behind the Mariners and will face them five more times.

The M’s lost their season series to the Cleveland Guardians, who took four of seven games. The Guardians hold the second AL wild card berth and are three games in front of Seattle.

The Mariners won their season series against the Baltimore Orioles by taking four of seven games. They’re two games in front of Baltimore in the wild-card standings.

Seattle still has three games apiece remaining against the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees, who both took two of three games in their first series against the M’s this year. Both are way out in front of the rest of the AL field, so it’s unlikely a tiebreaker would come in to play for a wild card spot since Seattle will have probably won its division if it catches either team. There is an outside shot it could come into play for seeding of division winners, but the Mariners have a lot of ground to make up for that to come in play.

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