The Mariners are still alive, with one slim path to playoffs remaining

The Seattle Mariners have entered every game since Sunday knowing they could be eliminated from postseason contention by the time they leave the ballpark.

It still hasn’t happened yet.

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With a 6-5 walkoff win in 10 innings over the Houston Astros on Wednesday night, the Mariners staved off elimination for the third time since Sunday. And it means they enter the final series of the regular season with ever the slightest glimmer of hope to win a second straight AL West title and reach the playoffs this year.

The situation for the M’s, who are out of the wild card race, is quite simple. Let’s break it down.

The tragic number: 1

The Mariners are 74-84 with four games to go, which means they can finish no better than 78-84. Meanwhile, the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros are tied for first place in the AL West at 78-80. The Rangers hold a tiebreaker advantage over Seattle by winning the season series between the two teams, while the Mariners beat Houston in the season series and have the tiebreaker advantage over the Astros. Seattle also has the three-way tiebreaker advantage should each of the three teams finish with 78 wins.

That means any one Mariners loss, Rangers win or Astros win over the final four days of the regular season will eliminate the M’s from postseason contention. Because if either Texas or Houston wins one game, the Mariners can’t match them at 79 wins. And if the Mariners lose one game, they can’t get to 78 wins, which Texas and Houston have already reached.

What the Mariners need to make the playoffs

The Mariners have to sweep their final four-game home series against the Los Angeles Angels that starts at 6:40 p.m. Thursday night, while the Rangers lose their four remaining games against the New York Mets (11:35 a.m. Thursday) and Minnesota Twins (Friday-Sunday), and the Astros lose all four of their games in Sacramento against the Athletics (Thursday-Sunday).

The trends and matchups

Texas, which has lost three straight, are playing Thursday at home against a 73-85 Mets team that has won four of five. Then the Rangers go to Minnesota to play a 75-84 Twins team that has won three of four and is 5-3 over the last eight games. The Rangers are a combined 0-5 against the Mets and Twins this season.

Houston has lost four of its last five games and is 3-8 over its last 11. The Astros are in Sacramento for four games starting Thursday against a 63-95 Athletics team that just swept a two-game series against the Angels to shake off a six-game losing streak. The Astros are 4-5 against the A’s this year.

The Mariners have won four of their last six games, and now face a 60-98 Angels team that has lost three straight and is 4-8 over its last 12. Also, the M’s have won nine straight home games against the Angels dating back to the start of the 2025 season.

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