ESPN’s Jeff Passan gives Mariners a good chance of overtaking Astros

Sep 9, 2025, 12:09 PM

Editor, Seattle Sports

With less than three weeks to go in the 2025 MLB regular season, the Seattle Mariners sit in position for the American League’s final wild card berth to the playoffs.

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There was legitimate concern the Mariners would lose their hold on that spot last week while they were getting swept by the Tampa Bay Rays. But now that they have responded with three straight wins, ESPN’s Jeff Passan is trending the other direction with his opinion on Seattle’s playoff hopes.

“I wouldn’t have said this last week, so prisoner of the moment caveat: I think the Mariners have as good of a chance of winning the American League West as they do of not making the playoffs,” Passan said Tuesday to Seattle Sports’ Brock and Salk.

Entering Tuesday, the Mariners (76-68) were two games back of the Houston Astros for first place in the AL West, and 1 1/2 games up on the Texas Rangers for their wild card spot. So mathematically speaking, Passan’s take maybe isn’t as spicy as it seems on its face. But it is a vote of confidence.

“I think (the Mariners) will make the playoffs,” Passan continued, “but I’m saying I think whatever chance you think in your head they have to just completely blow it with the Rangers and with the Guardians and with the Royals and to an extent with the Rays on their heels, I actually think they have just as good a chance to go and take first place and win the division.”

A good part of that has to do with the Astros, who are 78-66 after going just 3-6 over their last nine games.

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“I’ve never thought they were all that good,” Passan said. “… I think that they have a number of good players, and I think that their depth is generally problematic. And let’s remember, a lot of what the Astros were doing earlier this season was a function of their bullpen just being absolutely otherworldly.”

Not only could the Astros be without All-Star closer Josh Hader for the rest of the regular season (he landed on the injured list with shoulder woes a month ago), but several of their better relievers have fallen off in the second half.

“Steven Okert’s come back to Earth a little bit, Bryan King’s come back to Earth a little bit, Bennett Sousa’s come back to Earth a little bit. And the the depth that they have pitching-wise is just not all that great,” Passan said. “They’ve absolutely run through starting pitching this year. … I think they’re still just trying to figure out what they’ve got.”

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Pitching is also where Passan pointed when asked what the Mariners need to win their first division title in 24 years.

The #Mariners win the AL West if they do _________?

Jeff Passan shares his answer (and much more) with @BrockHuard & @TheMikeSalk in the FULL video. 👇

📺: https://t.co/qQsXv362aa pic.twitter.com/zwSnTT1FyE

— Seattle Sports (@SeattleSports) September 9, 2025

“Get the starting pitching that over the last three years we have come to expect from this organization,” he said. “… It has not been the thing that has defined this team this year. I think if the Mariners have a chance to win the World Series this year, which I believe they do, it’s going to be on the backs of that starting pitching.

“So I want to see ‘Walter,’ and I want to see good George Kirby, and I want to see Bryan Woo go six innings, and I want to see Luis Castillo have a classic Luis Castillo game, and I want to see Bryce Miller pumping fastballs. If all of those things can be consistently good – I’m not even talking great – if we can just get consistent solid performances out of the starting pitching, I think that the rest will fall into place.”

Catch ESPN MLB analyst Jeff Passan at 8:30 a.m. Tuesdays during the baseball season on Brock and Salk.