Morosi: How potential MLB lockout could impact free agency

With a potential lockout looming on Dec. 1, could there be a bigger frenzy of moves in November?

Oct 10, 2026, 9:21 AM

Seattle Mariners T-Mobile Park general view 2026...

A general view of the Seattle Mariners' T-Mobile Park in 2026. (Olivia Vanni/Getty Images)

(Olivia Vanni/Getty Images)

With MLB owners expected to lock out the players once the current collective bargaining agreement expires Dec. 1 at 11:59 p.m. EST, this offseason will be anything but typical.

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The first impact of the potential lockout could be seen shortly after the World Series comes to an end and teams are able to begin making moves.

With one month to go before baseball is potentially shut down – which would prohibit teams from signing or trading players – will there be the frenzy we saw in the fall of 2021 leading into the lockout that winter?

During his weekly appearance on Seattle Sports’ Wyman and Bob, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi cautioned against using ’21 as a blueprint.

“I think the big question and the one unknown here is we don’t know if there’s going to be a (salary) cap.” Morosi said. “That’s the one thing where there’s a much more realistic chance of a cap being part of the outcome now than it was last time around. It wasn’t really even being talked about last time. There’s a lot that’s different. We’re talking about variables within variables. Is there going to be a cap? If there is a cap, how long is the runway before it takes effect? We just don’t know a lot of those things. And so that might work against some teams feeling comfortable making that play.”

Morosi pointed out there could be a significant flipside to the uncertainty when it comes to highest-dollar players who would want to get in before a cap became a potentially limiting factor for teams.

“There’s a lot of different machinations that are going to happen, and some different taxation elements,” Morosi said. “All those different things will come into play, but there might be a very narrow group of people for whom the deal is big enough and long enough that it might make sense for all parties to get it done before Thanksgiving.”

And what happens after? With the lockout almost assuredly going to happen, the big concern item is the potential loss of games if the two sides are unable to come to an agreement before the spring. While hoping that, like in the ’21-’22 work stoppage, cooler heads will prevail and the full season will be preserved, Morosi’s approach is hoping for the best and at a minimum being ready for the worst.

“I look at the big picture and say this: the game is in a good place,” Morosi said. “There is a lot to be gained by keeping this train going. And I hope a lot of different creative solutions that will be put into place will allow that to be the case. What those specific solutions are is way above my pay grade, but I do think that there is a compromise there for both sides.”

It is still very early in the process, but Morosi suggested a potential ending.

“The biggest picture point that I like to make is even if there is a cap at the end of the day, the cap on the high end or maybe even a cap on the length of a player’s salary, if you say that the length or that the upper limit on a guarantee is going to be a half a billion dollars, then OK, that’s going to affect how many people in the game?,” Morosi said. “It’s a very small number of people for whom that is a thing. Whereas if you bump up the minimum salary or improve the salary arbitration steps, that structure makes a huge impact on the rank and file, which by the way is more of the league than the superstars.”

“So they want the game to keep going and they want their minimum salary to move up, and if they’re looking at it strictly through their own prism of self-interest, I think that’s a pretty good deal.”

Listen to the full conversation with MLB Network’s Jon Morosi at this link or in the audio player near the middle of this story. Tune into Wyman and Bob weekdays from 2-7 p.m. or find the podcast on the Seattle Sports app.