Making sense of the Mariners’ deal with Nelson Cruz

Some quick thoughts on the Nelson Cruz deal, which has yet to be finalized:

What came to mind first when the news came across Twitter was not the years and dollars or what Cruz could bring to the batting order, but rather the impact the signing could have on how the rest of the offseason goes for the Mariners.

With the names that were coming off the board and the clear need still for at least one right-handed bat, the Mariners were in danger of being in the position where they might have to make a difficult trade to acquire it.

Make no mistake, the Mariners like Cruz. This is not a fallback. He was high on their list both this offseason and last spring. It is not a perfect signing – there are numerous articles and posts arguing that the numbers would indicate the Mariners are setting themselves up for a fall with Cruz – but before he even hits the field he gives the organization value. Value in the fact that before he faces even one pitch at Safeco Field in a Mariners uniform, he has filled a need in the lineup batting behind Robinson Cano.

If the Mariners weren’t to make another move offensively this winter, they still would have filled their biggest need on paper and on the lineup card. That puts more cards in their hands when they go to deal with other clubs.

The Mariners most likely aren’t finished. They would still like to add another outfielder but now they are not in a position where they have to. They cannot be backed into a corner for a Justin Upton or Matt Kemp. They can walk if the other team demands Taijuan Walker or James Paxton.

It can sometimes be difficult for teams with young talents like Walker or Paxton to make a deal because other teams will hold out for those players regardless of whether or not they are available. Blue Jays manager John Gibbons pointed this out the day after Walker’s complete-game shutout in Toronto.

“You hear around baseball that he is one of the top guys, top up-and-coming prospects. Anybody who wanted to make a deal with the Mariners, he had to be in it, that kind of guy, and you can see why,” Gibbons said.

Now it is not so easy for the other team to demand a starter and walk away if it isn’t on the table. The Mariners do not have to make a deal, and while other teams may want Walker or Paxton, they may also like a number of young players.

If the Mariners were desperate for that bat they might have to move a pitcher. As it is now, other teams can’t be looking for the steal. By adding the right-handed bat the Mariners have put themselves in position to not make a bad deal. They can now keep their pitching if they so choose. They gained a bat and kept an arm.

That bat didn’t come cheaply and they will have to surrender their first-round draft pick – No. 19 overall – as Cruz had been extended the qualifying offer. The Mariners, however, were able to spend the money and give up a draft pick because they put themselves in position to do so.

Depending on how the Cruz and Kyle Seager contracts are structured, with arbitration estimates from MLBTradeRumors.com, the Mariners’ 25-man roster if filled out by major league minimum players would come in at over $120 million if the season started today. Payroll has gone up as promised.

While my first thoughts were that the Mariners are now in the safety harbor of not having to make a deal, and with the increased payroll just what exactly do they have to spend? My next thought right on the heels of the first two was: just what will Cruz be on the field?

The deal is most likely too long, but if the Mariners are playing with a new budget, if the TV dollars are coming in and will continue to come in, how concerned should I be about the contract if he fills a need now? A need that has been darn near impossible to fill. Cruz put up a .525 slugging percentage and an .859 OPS in 2014. You have to go back to Russell Branyan in 2009 to find the last Mariner to slug .525 or more and put up and OPS of .850 or greater in 500-plus plate appearances. Richie Sexson in 2005 was the last right-hander to put up those numbers for the Mariners.

While Cruz’s numbers most likely won’t be the same as they were in the hitter-friendly American League East, they should be a vast improvement over anything swinging from the right side we have seen in some time.

If it is, then the benefit could be twofold. You get Cruz’s production and you should get increased production from Cano, who while in no way making excuses did admit numerous times last year that he was pitched differently in the Mariners’ lineup. You may or may not believe in lineup protection but Cano himself saw the effect of not having it first hand.

ESPN’s Jim Bowden pointed to this as the biggest benefit for the Mariners when he joined “Danny, Dave and Moore” on 710 ESPN Seattle Monday afternoon.

“It’s huge,” he said. “Now you can’t pitch around Robinson Cano, now you can’t pitch around Kyle Seager. You’ve got three guys in a row in the lineup who can hit. And having that weapon of three in a row? It makes it very difficult for opposing pitchers. It gives them balance in the middle of the lineup.”

Right now, on paper, it does. The deal may not be ideal and Cruz is unlikely to match his 2014 numbers, but even so he makes this lineup better. For the Mariners, that is a win for now.

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