Insider: How Mariners stack up in wide-open AL West

Two years ago, the American League West came down to the final weekend of the regular season in a razor-tight race between the Houston Astros, Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners.

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That’s what Fangraphs is forecasting. The well-known statistical site projects both the Mariners and Rangers to finish at 84 wins, with the Astros right on their heels at 83 wins.

It’s also how Grant Brisbee, an MLB reporter for The Athletic, sees the division stacking up.

Brisbee wrote about the AL West as part of The Athletic’s MLB preseason power rankings, which placed the Astros at No. 8, the Rangers at No. 10 and the Mariners at No. 11. As Brisbee pointed out, all three teams enter the season with legitimate question marks, which could make for a wide-open race.

“There’s not a favorite in this division,” Brisbee said Thursday during an appearance on Seattle Sports’ Bump and Stacy. “The Mariners have as good a chance as the other two.”

Here’s what Brisbee said about the AL West’s top three contenders, with an emphasis on the biggest uncertainties facing each team.

Houston Astros

The four-time defending AL West champions will have a notably different look this season after trading away three-time All-Star outfielder Kyle Tucker and losing longtime franchise icon Alex Bregman in free agency.

The Astros somewhat offset those losses by signing slugging first baseman Christian Walker in free agency and acquiring All-Star third baseman Isaac Paredes as part of the Tucker trade. But still, Brisbee remains a bit perplexed that Houston moved on from the 28-year-old Tucker, who is one of the game’s top young position players.

“They had a weird offseason where they’re trading Kyle Tucker, who’s one of the better players in baseball,” Brisbee said. “And I get that he’s a pending free agent, but when you’re the Astros and anything other than a World Series win is a disappointment, I just think you should keep the best players in baseball while you have them.

“Isaac Paredes has a swing that is tailored for Minute Maid Park, so I like that they acquired him, but not at the expense of (Tucker).”

There also are some questions at the back end of Houston’s starting rotation. But as Brisbee pointed out, the Astros always seem to find a way to make it work.

“You start to look at the rotation as maybe a little bit dicey,” Brisbee said. “They always seem to find a way. They’re always taking (someone like) Hunter Brown and taking him from a sort of iffy pitcher to, well, now he’s Hunter Brown, this known quantity. And if they can do that again, they’ll figure it out. And they seem to.”

Texas Rangers

After winning the World Series in 2023, the Rangers were ravaged by injuries in 2024 – especially in their starting rotation. Former Cy Young Award winners Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom combined to make just 12 starts, while Tyler Mahle also missed nearly the entire season and Jon Gray had three trips to the injured list.

Scherzer departed in free agency, but deGrom and Mahle appear healthy and set for the season. However, the injury bug already struck Texas’ rotation again this spring, with Gray and Cody Bradford both set to open the year on the IL.

“For the Rangers, it’s pretty clear at this point: Can you keep a rotation healthy?” Brisbee said. “I mean, we’re talking about an embarrassment of riches, but every time I turn around there’s some bad news.”

The Rangers are also hoping their lineup can bounce back. After leading the AL in runs scored in 2023, Texas had a number of core hitters who dealt with injuries or down seasons last year.

“They have an odd roster and lineup in that they have a bunch of young guys that they’re counting on to perform better,” Brisbee said. “I mean, it’s almost like the Julio Rodríguez thing where you’re wondering, ‘OK, is this when Evan Carter takes that leap? Is this when we’re going to get that MVP sort of production from Wyatt Langford?’

“At the same time, you’ve got some of the older guys. Can we expect that five-win season from Marcus Semien again? Can we expect that big production from Corey Seager? Can he stay healthy?”

Seattle Mariners

The Mariners, of course, need better production from their lineup. Seattle struggled mightily at the plate last year, finishing 29th in batting average as a slew of hitters performed well below their career norms. It squandered an exceptional season from the Mariners’ elite starting rotation, which led the majors in ERA.

“Throughout the lineup, you can look at every single one of the hitters in the projected nine and say, ‘Well, if X, then Y,'” Brisbee said. “And you can put an X in there where the Y is something really nice, especially with the rotation in place. So it’s not like a hopeless lineup.

“(But) collectively, where are the sure things?” he added. “Even when you’re talking about Julio Rodríguez, he’s not really the sure thing. You’ve got a bunch of guys who could have an OPS between .700 and .850 – or in Julio Rodríguez’s case, even .950. I mean, it’s such a wide spectrum.”

If the lineup does come together, then the Mariners could have something special.

“Their roster is so close,” Brisbee said. “It’s got the ice cream, it’s got the whipped cream, it’s got the hot fudge. It just needs that cherry on top. It needs the chopped nuts or whatever you put on a sundae. It’s just so close.

“You can’t deny that they’re one of the few teams that has a starting rotation that’s five deep,” he added. “Most teams don’t even go three deep these days. So the Mariners have something going that most teams don’t.”

A potential surprise contender?

Brisbee also dropped an interesting nugget: Don’t count out the Athletics.

The A’s have struggled to three consecutive sub-70-win campaigns, but they could be more competitive this year after increasing their spending this offseason. And with the AL West’s top three teams each possessing question marks, Brisbee says there could possibly be an opportunity for the Athletics to emerge as a surprise contender.

“(The top three teams) have left the door open for even the A’s,” Brisbee said. “And we should not be talking about the A’s. When you have a rotation like the Mariners, when you have all the players that the Astros and Rangers have had their hands on over the past couple years, you really shouldn’t even be bringing up the A’s. But at the same time, you could squint and say, ‘Yeah, they might be interesting too.'”

Listen to the full conversation with The Athletic’s Grant Brisbee at this link or in the audio player near the top of this story. Tune in to Bump and Stacy weekdays from 10 a.m. to 2 p.m. or find the podcast on the Seattle Sports app.

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