The signs Mariners’ Julio Rodríguez could be on verge of breakout

The Seattle Mariners’ offense is rolling, but the biggest star in their lineup has yet to take off in the way he’s shown before that he’s capable of.

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Center fielder Julio Rodríguez is in the midst of another slow start at the plate, something he’s now done in all four of his MLB seasons. However, Rodríguez’s numbers this year look a little different than early in his prior seasons, which is a reason for optimism about the two-time All-Star’s prospects this season.

Yahoo Sports’ Jordan Shusterman explained why he believes Rodríguez is close to a breakthrough at the plate when he joined Seattle Sports’ Bump and Stacy on Wednesday.

A different version of Julio

Rodríguez is hitting just .228 through his first 36 games. There has been an uptick in his powers numbers early on compared to seasons past. He hit his sixth home run in a 5-3 win over the A’s on Tuesday, which was his 35th game of the season. That was just one game behind than his previous career best of six home runs through his first 34 games in 2023. It’s also much quicker than the pace he was on last season when his sixth home run didn’t come until his 71st game.

However, the power numbers aren’t necessarily what has Shusterman encouraged – it’s the increased walk rate and reduced strikeout rate.

Rodríguez is sporting a career-best 10.2% walk rate and a career-low 19.9% strikeout rate. He hasn’t struck out yet in six games during the month of May. Through his first three seasons, Rodríguez walked just 6.6% of the time while striking out at a 25.2% clip.

Shusterman also pointed to Rodríguez’s career-low .255 BABIP (batting average on balls in play), which is 75 points lower than his single-season low, as a reason why more hits should start falling soon.

“I know you’re still looking at a batting average that doesn’t look great, but I’ve kind of been saying this for a while, the underlying stuff still looks really, really good for him,” Shusterman said. “And maybe this run recently is the sign that the hot streak that we’ve grown so accustomed to coming in July or August or September, maybe that is coming sooner.”

The current run Shusterman is talking about isn’t the same sort otherworldly hot streak Rodríguez has shown he’s capable of in the past, like his often-brought-up heater in August 2023. Instead, it’s a slower build.

Rodríguez was hitting just .179 after an 0-for-3 performance in Toronto on April 18. In 16 games since, he’s hitting .284 with a .351 on-base percentage, .814 OPS, three home runs and nine RBIs. He has a hit in 13 of the 16 games, which includes back-to-back multi-hit games Tuesday and Wednesday for just the second time this season. He’s also struck out just 13.5% of the time.

“He still has at-bats where he’s swinging at pitches that nobody should be. Of course, that’s still happening,” Shusterman said. “But like I’ve always said, if he’s still giving you that Gold Glove defense in center and making a difference on the bases, he’s on pace once again to be a four to six WAR player, which any team in baseball would love to have in center field.”

Hear the full conversation at this link or in the audio player near the top of this story. Listen to Bump and Stacy weekdays from 10 a.m.-2 p.m. or find the podcast on the Seattle Sports app. 

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