ESPN’s Olney details what a Skubal trade could cost the Mariners
ESPN insider Buster Olney shares his insight on a potential Seattle Mariners trade for two-time AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal.
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON - APRIL 02: Tarik Skubal #29 of the Detroit Tigers pitches during the second inning against the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park on April 02, 2025 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images)
(Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images)
There was one team who had the number on the American League’s top pitcher this season. That would be the Seattle Mariners.
The Mariners somehow pulled off the incredible feat of winning all four games they played this season against Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal, which included a pair of playoff games.
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Skubal won his second straight AL Cy Young award after the season was over, but reports have indicated that the Tigers are willing to trade their shutdown left-hander this offseason as he heads into his final year of club control.
Could the Mariners be a contender to land the Seattle U product? And what would it cost? ESPN MLB insider Buster Olney answered those questions during a conversation with Seattle Sports’ Brock and Salk on Thursday.
“I do think probably the smart, long-term play, if you’re the Tigers, is, look, this guy has extraordinary value right now in the trade market, and so you go to teams like the Mets, maybe like the Mariners with their loaded farm system, and say, OK, we’re open for business. What would you give us for him? And there’ll be some teams that I think absolutely will try to take advantage of that,” Olney said.
“I think the Mets will. I think in the Mariners’ case, it is really – because their payroll size is different than a team like the Mets – I think it’s a legitimate debate where you feel like, OK, do we want to pay the price for what’s essentially going to be one year of Tarik Skubal in all likelihood? Or do we play the long game, keep the prospects, keep the years of control with those young guys?”
The asking price for Skubal figures to be high. Olney pointed to one recent trade that is comparable. The Milwaukee Brewers dealt former NL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes to the Baltimore Orioles just before the start of the 2024 season. Burnes, a three-time All-Star at the time, was heading into the final year of club control. In return, the Brewers received a package of top-100 infield prospect Joey Ortiz, left-hander DL Hall and a 2024 Competitive Balance Round A draft pick.
However, Olney believes Skubal would command more in a trade than Burnes.
“I don’t think it’s a perfect comp because as great as Corbin Burnes is, he’s not Tarik Skubal,” Olney said. “The prospects that the Brewers got back, or the players the Brewers got back, helped them and they’re good players. I still think the price would be steeper, and (if you’re) the Tigers, (with) where they’re at and if you’re gonna trade Skubal and you’re gonna try to contend in 2026, you would want a pitcher to anchor the deal.”
Olney pointed to a recent Skubal trade proposal from former MLB general manager Jim Bowden, who writes for The Athletic. Bowden suggested a deal headlined by M’s starter Bryce Miller, who is under club control through 2029.
“I tend to doubt that because the injury history,” Olney said of Miller being the centerpiece of a Skubal deal. “I think the Tigers are gonna want a healthy, young, major league-ready pitcher. I think the Mets match up really well in that regard. Obviously, if you’re the Tigers and you’re asking for the sun and the moon (from the Mariners), you’re starting with Bryan Woo. The Mariners say no, and then you move on to potentially other names.
“But the Mets certainly with Nolan McLean and Jonah Tong and some of these other young guys who’ve already pitched in the big leagues, they could be positioned. But beauty is in the eye of beholder. If the Tigers have guys that they really like in the Seattle farm system, they can identify those, and then it’s up to the Mariners to say yes or no.”
Hear the full conversation at this link or in the audio player near the top of this story. Listen to Brock and Salk weekdays from 6-10 a.m. or find the podcast on the Seattle Sports app.
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Comments
1 Comments
There is no way that I would trade any of Woo, Miller, Kirby or Gilbert for Skubal. Not going to happen. If they want Luis Castillo and a bunch of prospects, fine, but the difference in upgrade from any of our young four for Skubal is not dramatic enough to justify the expense. An expensive trade must make us substantially better rather than just marginally better. The main problem for the Ms staff this past year was their health. If their staff was healthy the entire season or for the playoffs then they would have dominated. I'd much rather keep our rotation as is with the possibility of adding the new draft pick if he's truly ready while keeping Evans around to spot start. Hancock can join the relief core or also remain available for spot starts.