Stacy Rost: Seahawks set for major test against 49ers’ sizzling offense

Sunday’s NFC West showdown between the Seattle Seahawks and the San Francisco 49ers is a test for the defending champs.

“I think the Seahawks-Niners head-to-head determines, potentially, home field for the NFC Championship game, much like the Seahawks-Rams head-to-head did last year,” NFL Network host Andrew Siciliano said Tuesday on Seattle Sports’ Bump and Stacy.

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Siciliano wasn’t ruling out the Rams, a team in which he still believes despite a shakier start to the season. But the 49ers are rolling. San Francisco is one of three undefeated teams left (along with Kansas City and Minnesota) and is averaging the second-most points per game (30.5).

Siciliano is high on quarterback Brock Purdy, head coach Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers’ offense right now — as most NFL voices are — but he’s taking the home team this weekend.

“I’ve said it repeatedly that (Lumen Field) is the loudest and most imposing venue for a road team there is. Nobody wants to go there. And yeah, I’ll give the Seahawks the edge here,” he said.

And maybe that noise and chaos will help Seattle do something it needs to do to get that win: sack Brock Purdy.

Purdy is the only regular starter in the league who hasn’t been sacked this year. It’s certainly not the only, nor even the biggest, reason the 49ers are rolling, but it’s contributed to an offense that’s converting nearly 60% of third downs (57%). Likewise, it’s far from the main reason the Eagles, Chargers and Bucs are struggling, but all three of those teams are converting 36% or less on third down, and Baker Mayfield is tied for first in sacks (13) while Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts have been sacked 12 times apiece. One note: The Seahawks have allowed six sacks of their quarterbacks but are the second-worst offense on third down — a concerning stat for another column.

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San Francisco also has only a single interception thrown this year. There’s so much to their turnover differential and performance on third down that can be tied directly to Purdy playing his best football right now — with an ability to scramble to convert and make good decisions — but the protection up front has been a real factor.

Will the Seahawks challenge that?

They certainly seem poised to do so. They’re the best defense San Francisco will face thus far. San Francisco fans would probably point to a loss to Marcus Mariota and the Commanders (they’d be fair), but Washington earned 21 points off turnovers in that game, including a pick-six and a fumble recovery inside the 20-yard line.

More importantly for the Seahawks, the meatier stats show this remains an elite group. They’re leading the league in pass rush win rate (69%) and are fifth in run stop win rate (32%). DeMarcus Lawrence is top 10 in both categories among edge rushers, and Seattle has four defensive linemen ranked 16th or higher (Lawrence, Derick Hall, Leonard Williams, Byron Murphy II).

They’re first in total defense (246 yards allowed per game), tied for second in total takeaways (eight), fifth in sacks (11), and still haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher.

San Francisco will give them their single greatest test yet, but a still-suffocating defense (and a raucous Seattle crowd) will also be a temperature check for a white-hot 49ers’ offense.

Hear full conversation with Andrew Siciliano at this link. Listen to Bump and Stacy weekdays from 10 a.m.-2 p.m.

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